I’m not talking about some peak oil collapse theory, but the actually reality that the return on investment of extracting oil is steadily eroding. Have a look at the data yourself:
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2013.012...
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2013.012...
The oil supply chain is logistically demanding. Once oil is pumped out of the ground it's got to go somewhere, and once it's there it has to move or be burned, because storing oil gets expensive. What oil producers care about is predictability of demand, price is important but it's secondary to that. If the whole world knows that there's plenty of oil it's much harder to set the price where you want it. If the world thinks oil is a rare and precious commodity the price is natural.