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Possibly interesting data point: I own a VW ID.4 in Europe. I found the range that the car displays to be quite accurate, regardless of the season. I was also surprised to find that I'm often getting kWh/100km numbers that are better than the manufacturer's numbers, especially in city driving.

This was weird, because I got used to gasoline-powered car numbers being wildly unrealistic.

(BTW, I have the model with the heat pump.)

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I don't know how they did it, but the range estimate on any recent VW group EV is really super accurate, especially if you set a destination in the navigation. It's very impressive. It really helps with road tripping because it's so consistent. In both my e-tron and my Taycan (which have the same infotainment software), I'd know that I'd beat the destination charge estimate by about 5% on a full charge with my driving style.

I've found the ID.4 range to also be pretty accurate, even in winter driving. I definitely notice that it takes recent driving style into consideration, but haven't noticed if it takes ambient temperature into consideration, though.

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