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It’s pretty astonishing how rapidly everyone in the world went from ‘sky net’ to laughable garbage in a matter of a few months.

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I think what people were tuning into more so than “how good are the models” was “how quickly are the models getting better?”

The jumps from ~nothing general purpose/consumer-facing to GPT3, 3.5, Copilot, GPT4 all seemed enormous and pretty much back-to-back. Extending that curve points to some pretty extreme destinations (positive or negative), but now the sentiment seems to be that curve was a bit of a mirage.

I intuitively share the view that that curve was a mirage (and a byproduct of years of R&D backlog + OpenAI’s release cadence) but that isn’t coming from any rigorous analysis.

I’ve been on laughable garbage from day 1. Drew is spot on here.

It all depends on the parameters and constraints. If you spend a lot of time defining, providing sufficient context, and clarifications, they work quite well. I think the reality is people's expectations were unreasonably optimistic and now they are unjustifiably pessimistic. The general public seems to oscillate between extremes quite rapidly while not appreciating the nuances.

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