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> He must be completely convinced it will be seized

If you've listened to Buffett talk about investing, probably not. He got to be the world's greatest investor by understanding risk and probabilities very well. He doesn't need to be "completely convinced", just convinced that the expected value of his shares won't be positive. Suppose he thinks there is, say, 25% chance of a takeover (which is definitely scary but far from 100%) - in that case his shares go to 0. He could easily think that the potential upside just doesn't outweigh that significant chance of a total wipeout.

Kelly Criterion too.

It can be something more than TSMC being seized. It could be that he sees TSMCs share of the market going down over the long term. Which it probably will. Many governments are pretty unhappy with dominance of TSMC. The US in particular is dumping some money out there to onshore chip manufacturing. It reasons that this will probably eventually result in some shifting in the market.

It doesn't have to be siezed. There is a large incentive to sabotage it, which would effectively weaken Taiwan's independence without a war.

Was news a few months ago. Kind of a bad omen.