I'm curious if this is truly a breakthrough, or a physics "in mice".
I'm curious if this is truly a breakthrough, or a physics "in mice".
* Energy gain in this context only compares the energy generated to the energy in the lasers, not to the total amount of energy pulled off the grid to power the system, which is much higher.
I'm leaning towards the "in mice" but still a step forward.Disclaimer: Not a physicist.
Think of it as curing a very hard disease in mice, which had no success before this point, like rabies. It shows possibility rather than it just being a theory on a chalkboard.
The next large test (ICF is not thought to be scalable to achieve true parity) is the large scale iter tomahawk test in 5 years as it's scheduled for 2025, which is supposed to reach overall breakeven, though we will see.
They got more energy out of the plasma than they put in with the lasers, yes. But lasers are only a few percent efficient, and there are huge losses geting the power to the lasers from the capacitor banks (losses are proportional to the square of current, and we're talking very large currents). And there a further inefficiencies up the chain. Overall energy output would be well less than a thousandth of the energy put in. And it was generated only for a tiny fraction of a second.
Down-chain, actually being able to use the generated energy is its own chain of losses and inefficiencies.
TLDR; don't expect to see commercial fusion any time soon, or maybe in your lifetime.