You mentioned the corpus prediction being the core of the LLM. Because of this, my prediction is we will see way more data withholding to prevent LLM learning just like we’ve seen with stack overflow, Reddit, X.

I myself have started doing this. For example, I don’t publish code on GitHub anymore to prevent copilot training on my own code. Normally I like to get paid for work, instead of paying for GitHub and doing work for them:) I’d much rather take a page out of an artists playbook and require royalties.

I have also built a coding test harness to test for AGI and let me tell you, that the LLMs are completely unable to reason on the most intermediate and advanced algorithmic problems you present to them the moment they are not in the corpus. This involves a nearly complete lack of the ability to generalize and infer new concepts needed to solve the problem even if the concept is explained in the problem description.

Now the issue is that it is impossible to present the test because once it ends up in the corpus, then someone will put the solution in the corpus as well and claim the ability to reason. You can believe me or not; I won’t be making my test available either way, but it is not too hard to make one of your own to convince yourself.

I wish it was possible to make the tests like that available but alas we will likely end up with a medical-style double blind kind of tests to get rid of AI FUD.