(And naturally, the longer a house is held, the longer it’s likely to be held, even without Prop 13, but Prop 13 makes it a stronger sticky force.)
That would be assuming certain things, among which would be that if 10% of properties sell every year, there is a consistent 10% chance of a given property selling each year.
What I can tell you from looking at the data on all the houses in the neighborhood in which we bought our home in 2019 is that the vast majority of them had been last purchased more than 20 years earlier (and quite a few more than 30).
Given the significant economic incentives created by Prop 13, houses in appreciating areas should be less likely to turn over than ones in areas where values are relatively stable.
Transferring a Principal Residence Value within a County
“Proposition 60 (Revenue and Taxation Code 69.5)
Property owners of at least 55 years of age may transfer the base year value of their principal residence to a replacement principal residence. The replacement must be of equal or lesser current market value and located within the same county. Sacramento County does not allow base year transfers from other counties.”
https://assessor.saccounty.net/LowerMyTaxes/BaseYearValueTra...
This is how all the rich people avoid prop13 taxation.
If you do this in a "wealthy" area, you will find a lot of properties are held in living trusts (because probate), a lot will be in individual names, and a few will be own by LLCs. The latter are typically rentals (rather than rich people avoiding taxes, they are avoiding lawsuits from their tenants). As of 2023, if you aren't careful[1] the LLC rentals will lose their tax basis when they are inherited.
If you were working for Redfin or Zillow you could probably pull this out of data you had on your servers because the companies have paid the counties for copies of all the records.
[1] Where careful here is having created the LLC organizing document (or amended it) to allow for the transfer of majority ownership without triggering a sale. See this link for the current hoops -- https://www.kaidenelderlaw.com/blog/2023/march/can-an-llc-he...
Your complaint is that rich people wont have their property taxes jacked up and they haven't "eradicated" crime.
As a response to the fact that California is as close to the French Riviera as we have in the US.
https://nypost.com/2023/07/18/san-francisco-stores-lock-up-f...
Look at mcdonalds in detroit and stuff like that, they look like banks inside, with bulletproof plastic panels between customers and staff. Californian elitists just get pissy that they have to see it in their back yard, because they want the suffering required to support their profits to be out of sight and out of mind.
People bitch and moan that "california already spends a shitload on homelessness" but like, it's california, even the small office you have to have just for a social worker to have a laptop to keep things organized will cost millions a year. If you want to function somewhere that has a land cost ten times anywhere else, you are going to have to pay more. Period. The janitors need to live there too.