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Comment by mcculley | Hacker News Reader

Obviously, there are strategies to handle the shortage in the long term.

Right now, there is a shortage. If there is a shortage of hammers, one cannot just claim that the shortage does not exist because we can eventually make more hammers.

> Why weren't people trying to become tugboat captains for the past X years? Is it because the job paid too much?

The recent rollout of USCG Subchapter M has created significant demand while not increasing the available supply. I agree that industry and government should have realized this would happen.

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I think there is a semantic game being played because increased prices depresses demand. So in some views a shortage is almost always a fiction.

Think of it this way, gold has a high price, so I only use it in valuable ways, I don’t gold plate my house. If gold was significantly cheaper maybe I would, is there a shortage? Clearly there is a shortage at the price I would pay to gold plate my house. But I am fine using it for jewelry, no shortage at that price.

Your hammer example is the same, there are insufficient hammers at a certain price. Raising price will decrease demand and eliminate the shortage. This increase makes its way through the supply chain increasing prices along the way until demand goes down.

Of course this semantic argument is pointless because what people really want is access to the products they are accustomed to at a price they are accustomed to.

At this point, there are insufficient captains/hammers at any price. Lots of projects are blocked on lack of captains. I am selling tugboats because we cannot crew them. This is a direct result of USCG Subchapter M.

edit to add: This whole thread now feels like defense of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. We have an entire industry facing a stricter regulatory framework that increased demand for captains while fewer humans are being born in the U.S. This is a shortage.

I get that one can just increase wages and immediately get more cashiers or burger flippers. Other problems have more complicated dependencies.

edit more to add: I realize now I did not fully appreciating your argument, which is that there is never a shortage of anything?

How much can I expect to earn with you after I successfully spend 3 years training to be a tugboat captain? How much would I make in the meantime while I was an unlicensed deckhand? Asking very seriously.

I don’t know what you would make as a captain three years from now. Note that it would very likely take longer for one to become a captain. Three years is the fastest theoretically, which would require continuous time at sea.

Right now, captains with Master of Towing endorsement are getting $800-$1,200 per day, depending on the region and type of work.

Deckhands on a track to become captains are getting $300-$500 per day. I would pay more for the right candidates.

Could you share a link or site on how to find these positions? Or feel free to dm. Thanks.

gCaptain Jobs is probably the best single resource: https://jobsite.gcaptain.com

> At this point, there are insufficient captains/hammers at any price.

I bet you could bring captains out of retirement at the eight price. You're just not there (yet).

Most of the captains who are retired will not be able to get their annual medical certificate.

Not every job is like a desk job where we can just add more money and get more COBOL programmers back out of retirement.

Most but not all, a half million dollar compensation package will likely bring a few dozen to a few hundred out at least.

Plus offering unlimited, all expenses paid, legal support on top would get hundreds of tugboat captains from other countries to emigrate.

And the same could also apply for other licensed captains to switch to tugboats, the procedures aren't so complicated as to make a determined effort impossible.

Voila, shortage resolved in under 3 years.

I don’t know that we could get immigrants ready in less than three years. Jones Act is the limitation. We would have to find other work for them to do while they become citizens or green card holders.

I never argued that the shortage cannot be fixed. I argued against the claim that there is no shortage. Some shortages require more than just paying more money.

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