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Comment by tgtweak | Hacker News Reader

Is this the one that Intel is getting first dibs on for the next few generations? Looks like these fabrication paradigms generally work on Moore's law for some time before tapering off (S curve to some degree) but the discovery of a new paradigm can slow down the overall trendline if it takes too long to commercialize.

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Not going to happen. Remember, TSMC manufactures chips for Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Google, and a looot of other companies. They own about 60% of the cutting-edge fab capacity in the world, while Intel was basically an "also ran" during the transition to EUV.

ASML is never going to tie themselves to a single customer like that, let alone one which isn't even the market leader. High-NA is a massive technological change, and all the major players have already ordered their machines. Intel was simply the first to complete their order in a desperate attempt to avoid a repeat of their EUV debacle, but they'll receive their new toy at most a month or two earlier than their competition.

First dibs is not exclusivity, they simply were the first to order it and will be the first to receive the initial machines giving them a calendar advantage.

I assume these will be made available to Intel Fab customers as well at internally to Intel, since they are opening up 3rd party fabrication at a service offering.

ASML currently has a market cap larger than Intel. That has nothing to do with their sales but puts into perspective how important this technology is relative to all of Intel's activities. TSMC has been reported as their biggest client (https://www.reuters.com/technology/asml-shares-fall-7-after-...)

Huh, wow.

ASML: $287B

AMD: $182B

Intel: $154B

Intel has purchased the high-NA EUV machines[0] but I can't find any source on exclusivity.

[0] https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-orders-asml-machine...

As I understand it, exclusivity with ASML comes solely from their limited production capacity. Just buy all the machines for the year.

Intel is getting the first prototype(s), in a few years from now. Then add a a year or two before those EXE’s are actually used for volume manufacturing.

No exclusivity, as it’s ASML business model to work fairly with all semiconductor manufacturers.

They have the prototypes now, and are talking about entering mass production 2H 2024 [1]. From what I read, Intel has already received and taped out 18A and 20A using these new high-NA machines [2]

>Intel has announced that manufacturing of 18A-node chips will commence in H2 2024, six months ahead of schedule. According to a roadmap released last year, this node will be Intel’s first to employ high-NA lithography. It’s not clear whether this means that the next-gen EUV technology makes its debut in production a little earlier than expected. Last January, ASML CEO Peter Wennink told investors that he expected high-volume high-NA manufacturing to start in 2025 or 2026.

ASML high NA Credit: ASML ASML’s first high-NA system, the Twinscan EXE:5000, is fully production-capable, but chip manufacturers will initially use it for process development. The first unit will ship in H1 2023, with Intel on the receiving end. The US processor maker also placed the first order for the EXE:5000’s successor, the EXE:5200. The swift adoption of high-NA is an important element in Intel’s strategy to regain “unquestioned leadership” in the semiconductor industry by 2025.

[1]https://bits-chips.nl/artikel/intel-moves-high-na-node-up-6-... [2]https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-completes-developmen...

Somebody noticed that progress is usually a stack of sigmoids, not an uneventful and plain upwards curve.

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