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Comment by bigbillheck | Hacker News Reader

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Please don't post this sort of unsubstantive comment to HN, and please avoid the flamewar style generally when posting here.

You may not owe Elons better, but you owe this community better if you're participating in it: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36882951.

Elon also said the Falcon 9 would work, said it would be re-usable, said the Falcon 9 heavy would work, said the Model S would be good, said the Model 3 would be great, said the Model Y would be the most popular car in the world, etc. etc.

Obviously he's not hitting 100%, but you can't deny his companies are achieving immensely more than anyone ever thought possible.

If I could take Elon's ratio of "I said it would work vs. it's real and it does", I would, and so would any sane person.

> If I could take Elon's ratio of "I said it would work vs. it's real and it does", I would, and so would any sane person.

I want to be optimistic too, but you're missing Falcon 9s worth of broken Elon promises.

This isn't an exhaustive list, but certainly a more complete: https://elonmusk.today I recommend starting from the bottom.

I'll just say that if he were a baseball player, he would be a pretty bad one. The odds that an Elon prediction pans out are fairly bad. If a bookie were available, you'd want to take the under on every single one.

sane person here, I would only take Elon's claim that something would work seriously if it relied mostly on newtonian mechanics to verify.

which model S being good, falcon 9 working etc, that is all it takes. basic physics napkin math.

anything with nuance (self driving) or human emotions in play (twitter), and he is the same as any boomer uncle complaining about kids these days

Right, and he ballparks 250-300T in expendable mode here:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1661441658473570304?s=46...

Raptor improved thrust:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1678276840740343808?s=46...

Raptor 2 improved thrust:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1657249739925258240?s=46...

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1661441658473570304?s=46...

Love the guy or hate the guy, but on SpaceX numbers (other than timelines), he’s been spot on.

> That is all it takes. basic physics napkin math

And yet Tesla and SpaceX and now wiping the floor with their competitors.

If it was really so "basic", why didn't those other multi-billion dollar companies do what Tesla and SpaceX are doing?

> basic physics napkin math.

Exactly, it's not rocket science. Oh, wait, it actually is.

Right, and you can land on the moon with basic newtonian mechanics. The are millions of devils in the details but for a person to decide how big a rocket to build and whether it could land vertically after a payload of X that needs a delta-V of Y, its easy napkin math to prove feasibility.

Executing it is then one of the hardest things people can do but SpaceX had all the best people at the time.

You can claim anything is easy this way. Just take the easiest subset of a problem, and show how easy it is. I find that to be a pointless argument.

Full Self Driving is imminent and X.com is the future of finance!

Social finance, we will all be networked and worked and paying each other via X ! :)

Why is your hate boner relevant here? It's fine if you want to be irrational but why shout it out?

We've banned this account for repeatedly breaking the site guidelines.

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