The entire idea behind technical analysis is that it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. The more people believe in a certain rule, the more that rule turns out to be true.
It might work that way with astrology too, but it's not so clear.
It might work that way with astrology too, but it's not so clear.
For example if everyone agreed on that Gemini means good at science and Leo is good at art, the whole education system would be designed around this belief and it would hugely impact how children think of their own potential.
An astrologer named Asclation had earlier predicted that Domitian would die on September 18, 96 AD, and Domitian's enemies used this as a sort of nucleation point to organize his assassination. So although the date was made up, it had the effect of focusing the efforts of the assassins on a particular date, and they were successful in assassinating him on September 18.
The full story that survives probably has some embellishments, but is entertaining. As the day approached Domitian became increasingly nervous. On September 17, he called Asclation before him and asked him if he stood by his prediction. Asclation said he did. Domitian then asked Asclation how Ascaltion himself was to die. Asclation responded that the stars said that he would die by being torn apart by dogs. Domitian then had an idea, and condemned him to death by burning.
Asclation was immediately led to a public square, tied to a stake, and a bonfire was built underneath him. Not long after being lit, however, it suddenly began raining and the downpour quenched the flames. In the wet mess, Asclation's stake tipped over and a pack of dogs found him and devoured him.
This development naturally did not put Domitian's mind at ease. The next day he became a nervous wreck. Around noon, he asked an attendant what time it was. The attendant, who was part of the conspiracy, lied and said that it was an hour later. Seeing that the danger had passed, Domitian relaxed and decided to take a bath. As he was about to go out, an official rushed in and asked for his signature on some documents. The official appeared to have an injury to his arm, but this official was also in on the conspiracy, and his sling concealed a dagger. When he got close to the emperor he stabbed him to death.
Humans would totally do this. If anything, I'm pleased by the fact that we don't do it quite as much as we could...
It'd be hard to hide such statistical effects on an yearly interval, whereas the Western zodiac hides its predictive failures by not having signs that are commonly stratified into different groups.
https://blog.rongarret.info/2020/09/can-facts-be-racist.html
> you ask some parents about santa clause. they say we are athiests, but we pretend to believe in santa clause to make our child happy. then you ask the child about santa clause, and they say i pretend to believe to make my parents happy.
I think it descends from a line about labor in the USSR: "We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us." Tony Judt in "Thinking the Twentieth Century" had a line about Moscow needing its satellite states to avoid loudly or conspicuously disagreeing with party ideology even if in practice they were able to diverge. "You pretend to believe and we'll pretend to believe you."
At higher levels of simulacra, the statements people make are less about reality, and more about what they want people to believe they believe about reality.
While some kids may become very vocal about it when they suddenly stop believing in Santa Claus as a literal being, they children (and adults) can continue enjoying him for as long as they're not embarrased by it.
Having a small child in the family believing (or pretending to believe) can be a way for everyone else to enjoy him. And some families continue to have him even when nobody believes.
The same is sometimes true about religions. People can continue to value them even if they stop believing in the literal Sky-Father.
I can see how Santa Claus can live as a fairy tale, with small kids playing with the idea of the entire thing being somehow real, the same way as Goldilocks or Bambi. This is indeed cute, unless taken too seriously.
It's quite a bit harder with religions: they are not a once-a-year pleasantry, but are things that shape your entire view of the world and the way of life. A faintest idea that they are but a cute tale is literally a destruction of a worldview, a catastrophe instead of a mild disappointment. Knowing, say, Christianity or Islam as a cute tale only works for people who never were believers.
Belief comes at many levels of intensity. People with low intensity beliefs can drift away without experiencing a world view collapse.
There are certainly people of most religious backgrounds that continue to practice and enjoy many of the religious traditions and practices even generations after they stop believing in the supernatural parts.
-- Upton Sinclair (?)
This is how it works for the child and Santa.
The young economist looks down and sees a $20 bill on the street and says, “Hey, look a twenty-dollar bill!”
Without even looking, his older and wiser colleague replies, “Nonsense. If there had been a twenty-dollar lying on the street, someone would have already picked it up by now.”
I don't remember too much from my finance courses in business school but one comment from the professor always stayed with me. He said that if there was any succesful pattern to trading, there are firms on wall street which can afford many orders of magnitude more brain power and compute power than you, so they will zero in on it pretty quick if it works. As soon as they do, it doesn't work anymore. Proof: Otherwise they would all be making infinite profit.
Makes sense. This means any trading algorithm that can be programmed is pretty much obsolete (if it ever was any good) by the time it's working.
But such algorithms only work as long as they're kept secret. As soon as the algorithm is made public, every large institution will incorporate them into their trading robots, meaning the information will become priced in to the market value instantly.
There are really only five ways to beat the market:
1) Insider information. (Illegal) 2) Extensive market research, where you understand the companies better than the market does. (Requires A LOT of work) 3) Direct contribution to the company's success (you need to have the talent of a Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg or Bill Gates). 4) Mathematical/computational superiority (you need to be at the level of Jim Simons or have the capital to hire such people) 5) Luck.
Mainstream technical analysis is not on the list.
That being said, I'm sure the current AI revolution is leaving some doors open to massive profits to some clever person able to create a model that predicts patterns better than most other algo trading robots.
1.) You don’t get it.
2.) Let me explain.
3.) Science and maths.
4.) I’m no expert I believe in 3 though.
5.) Nothing is 100% accurate.
6.) Full Deepak Chopra.
But it’s hard to do that when something disproves its own validity so utterly.
If someone has a strategy to predict any amount of value from the market, it would be automated immediately (we’re mostly programmers here so that part’s kind of our bag), and so doing abstract that value away to a machine housed at JP Morgan or Citigroup.
tldr; It’s astrology for finance bros.
At least the crypto hype has died down again for another while. They perfected the above during Covid.
While actual finance people use algo trading all the time (meaning technical analysis using secret algorithms), naîve technical analysis is mostly a sales or influencing tool. (Unless the "finance bro" is truely deluded)
The same goes for tech managers. While some actually create agile teams using big data to create useful AI, plenty more just use the terms to inflate their own careers.
It's kind of like a group of lions hunting a giraffe. Globally it's adverserial, but within the lion pride, it's cooperative.