Contemporary geopolitics makes a lot more sense when you realize that we're fighting about which groups dies from climate change, not IF some are going to.
The major threat as outlined by the UN is "de-complexification" (IE, society collapse) as a result of mass climate migration and conflict over limited/reduced resources.
There are no realistic pathways to prevent this situation now. It is already kicking off and will be fully underway within 20 short years.
The worst case scenario is we stretch ourselves too thin trying to manage everyone that we don't have enough excess to embark on emergency geo-engineering projects.
There was a disgraced Finnish MP who let the mask slip and suggested that the richer nations conduct a "Climate Abortion" on equatorial populations to prevent this scenario. Ghoulish, but understandable in the face of existential threat.
Personally I'm foolishly hoping fusion becomes viable and changes some of the structural calculations underlying the projections. The difference it would make in desalination alone would go a long way.