Comment by solatic | Hacker News Reader

Comment by solatic | Hacker News Reader

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The strike will break Hollywood. There are simply too many other options available. Streaming distributors (e.g. Netflix, Prime Video, Apple TV) will simply go abroad and market foreign productions to American audiences, which is little different from living in a foreign country and having mostly American productions marketed to you. Consumers will pick and choose between what's still available on streaming distributors, YouTube, and other non-video entertainment sources like video games.

The cost of an average blockbuster production, compared to the cost of independent productions on platforms like YouTube, is insane. There's a reason why the cost of seeing a movie in a theater is so much higher today. But the value proposition is profoundly difficult. Spend $20/person/night at a movie theater, or $12/month for ad-free YouTube, where the production values of the top content producers have increased as per-episode views have reached into the millions? YouTube democratized content production, and gave anybody with sufficient talent access to the video entertainment market without needing to deal with the Hollywood gatekeepers. Think that the talent behind YouTube productions are going to unionize? That genie is out of the lamp.

Once the consumers leave Hollywood, good luck to Hollywood trying to get them back. And because the union's agreement doesn't extend to foreign productions, good luck trying to prevent actors and screenwriters from going abroad, whether to be part of a foreign production or an American production for YouTube, the longer the strike goes on.

I am skeptical about this take. I have lived abroad before and experienced the phenomenon of having the majority of pop culture come from the US. I don't think the United States will support this model (ie majority of pop culture coming from other countries). My feeling is that, at best, the strike will give more exposure to the entertainment industry of more countries but this will in no way supplant Hollywood.

As for Youtube, TikTok, etc, I believe these address a completely different need of the consumers. It takes Hollywood to create a Mission Impossible (or even Everything Everywhere All At Once). No one is going to create something like that and release it on social media (the economics don't work). Also, I (and I presume most other people) don't want to watch a 2 hour epic on my phone or laptop. The movie product includes the experience of going out, having a communal experience, etc. It is not just a solitary experience of seeing people act stuff on a screen.

> The movie product includes the experience of going out, having a communal experience, etc. It is not just a solitary experience of seeing people act stuff on a screen.

I actually agree with you, but as the price of movie tickets keeps going up, so does the cost of that communal experience. The price is starting to creep up against live concerts and live sports (for bleacher seats, OK, but still).

> It takes Hollywood to create a Mission Impossible (or even Everything Everywhere All At Once). No one is going to create something like that and release it on social media (the economics don't work).

The economics aren't working for movie theaters. The number of big-budget flicks that Hollywood can finance is decreasing over time as theater attendance declines and the films keep getting more expensive (at least due to inflation). The risks (costs) are increasing while the rewards (ticket sales) are decreasing. Something has to give.

The foreign unions are all looking to see how this plays out. The shape of the deal for SAG and WGA lays the groundwork for what they will be able to negotiate for.

> Streaming distributors (e.g. Netflix, Prime Video, Apple TV) will simply go abroad and market foreign productions to American audiences

Very skeptical about this. You'll see a bit of it while the strike is on, but the quality difference is real and the average US audience hates both sub and dub content.

You might get a bit of e.g. Scandinavian murder mystery or Korean drama, especially following the breakthrough of Squid Game.

I‘m also sceptical that non-US productions can simply take over. Hollywood as a global industry doesn‘t really have any competitors.

> but the quality difference is real

It’s surely a matter of taste, but IMO there are lots and lots of European and Asian films that are extremely high quality and stand head and shoulders above most Hollywood productions.

> the average US audience hates both sub and dub content.

Probably still true at present, but it's a mutable attribute. All you need to change this is to consistently present Americans with foreign content they personally find compelling. This has already been demonstrated with anime; Americans who like anime become acclimatized to subtitles, and of course dubs. And it's happening again with Americans who like romantic dramas; they're increasingly turning to Korean content. It could easily happen with blockbuster action movies too, particularly since those are light on dialogue anyway.

If Hollywood is counting on native English content being their moat, I think they're in trouble. That's a moat Americans are willing to cross if enticed with enough good content.

> the average US audience hates both sub and dub content.

The Anglosphere is larger than the US. Britain, Canada, South Africa, Australia each have domestic production companies that pump out English-language content that would not require dubbing or subbing.

Aren't a ton of the actors in these productions going to be in SAG AFTRA?

A is for America, so not likely, They might have their own unions, but i suspect this could be an opportunity of a lifetime for foreign english speaking content creators (actors/production companies).

> the quality difference is real

The production difference is not large enough to justify the difference in cost. Ultimately, the streaming platforms control distribution. If you're Netflix, and the cost to acquire a foreign production is a fraction of the cost of an American production, even if the foreign production has a more limited audience, which are you going to decide to purchase and promote?

Maybe streaming distributors could introduce premium subscription tiers to unlock access to more expensive American productions, but I doubt it. Netflix's business model is predicated on purchasing large amounts of niche content that, due to a global audience, are sufficiently large to justify the purchase of the niche content. Ultimately, the American subscriber market is just another niche, when you're building out a global subscriber base. American audiences can be uninterested in most foreign productions, as long as individual subscribers are interested in some foreign productions.

AI dubbing is getting very good. I hate dubs that don't sync up well or with actors who are terrible, but I'm optimistic about AI dubs taking over:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQ1OPpj8gPA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hMulGYj8wo

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