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So are there any TLDs that are safe from seizure? If so, which ones? If not, which ones are less likely to be seized?

'.', the DNS root zone, is considered the property of the US Dept. of Commerce, so, no.

However, I could see a seizure of a domain in a different country's TLD (ccTLD to be specific) causing a diplomatic scuffle between the US and the foreign country. I can't imagine France would be thrilled with the FBI seizing 'foo.co.fr' or something.

It's generally not technically possible for the US to seize individual domains located in ccTLDs, so that's a pretty moot issue.

Sure it is. They own the root, they can return an RR marked as authoritative for any domain in the system.

Would that work in the face of caching? If my resolver already has .se cached, for example, it wouldn't consult the root at all when looking up thepiratebay.se, right?

No domain seizure works in the face of caching. Eventually your cache will time out, and then it hits.

.local seems to be safe for now

.local conflicts directly with the mDNS protocol (used by Apple Bonjour and Linux Avahi service-discovery systems).

.is, however, is managed by Iceland. Iceland has been positioning itself as a haven for organizations concerned about free-speech and broad-sweeping censorship.

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