Interesting, comparing core scientific research and output by Bell Labs to just techi-ifying existing industries and not really adding much new value (other than OpenAI).
I think people need to be realistic - none of those are particularly ground breaking ideas, as evidenced by the fact that there are countless competitors and in many cases even predecessors that were not in the right place at the right time. These people just happened to be born to the right parents in the right country at the right time to have the privilege to have someone throw money at a not very original idea that could have been anyone's. Great for them, but I think it is worth staying grounded and realise that they're not visionaries and had they not even been born, someone would have thought up the same idea anyway. Monkies and typewriters and all that.
So maybe we'd not have "Reddit", but we'd no doubt have something largely identical that would fill that same niche. Equating any of these trivial things with something like the transistor is just absolute arrogance.
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For example, Bohr was recognized in 1975.
Some prizes for more recent discoveries:
2014: Blue LED 2009: fiber optics and they blue lcd.
The larger picture is to say that you can have an effect on the world. Even if it is just being in the right place at the right time, what you do, and how you do it matters. If Elon Musk hadn't bought Twitter, there would still be a Twitter, but with less Elon Musk brand of shittery. Maybe a different brand of shittery, but it would be that other person's brand.
But the transistor? Or the laser? Are these things that were thought up by the layman independently on a regular basis? (i.e. like the ideas for a lot of the y-combinator startups have been thought up independently many times over by laymen) I don't think so. I feel like these scientific endeavours require years of hands on scientific research and hard work before they ever become anything meaningful, and not just an idea for an app that pops into your mind while sitting on the toilet one day.
I think articles like these and the recent "how to do great work" one recently shows quite how out of touch and how much of an over-inflated sense of importance people in the tech industry can often have - to even begin to think that booking a taxi on a computer is anywhere close to something like inventing the transistor is just absurd.
I think the cult of pg is strong on this website, but it's important to strive for a bigger perspective.
You elaborated precisely that not just anyone could have implemented the ideas, which is in fact the single most important thing. Having an idea is not very meaningful, as nearly all ideas are close to worthless. It's a common mistake to think ideas are what have a lot of value.
The thing that primarily matters is who can and or is willing to act on an idea, who can bring it into existence (whether in a tangible sense of a product/service, or in terms of reaching a community to spread an idea (such as an idea in the field of published science)).
Those ideas only come into existence as a thing because some people were in the right place at the right time to make them happen and acted on it (with several other critical factors being required, some of which you listed). Not just anybody can bring an idea to fruition; literally millions of Internet users could easily have the idea for a subscription Internet-based Photoshop (circa 10-15 years ago) - now try making it a thing and try making it successful.
I suspect we will never know.
He's simply drawing an analogy between the output of laboratories like Bell Labs that produce breakthrough scientic research and "economic labs" like YC that produce breakthrough businesses.
Yes, AirBNB, Instacart etc are breakthrough businesses in the sense that they disrupted long-standing and deeply entrenched business models. The ideas themselves are not extraordinary but building and scaling a business from zero often against much better financed competitors is no easy feat and takes a unique amount of persistence (and often good timing) to succeed.
Stripe, Airbnb, Doordash, Uber etc. They're services that add value by extending existing concepts to the Internet or in a slightly better way. There's nothing revolutionary or earth shaking about them. They're eBay, taking auctions and putting it online; it's not revolutionary, it's modestly evolutionary. They certainly add very real value (although Airbnb's value add at this point may be going backwards; most services peak in value creation at some point before heading south).
The connected world took notice of GPT extremely rapidly. Only a few tech lightning strikes have been like that in the past 50 years, and only a few have moved very fast.
Downplaying the dramatic impact of GPT 3 / 4 would be silly, frankly. And we're only in the first or second inning. It has set off a remarkable chain reaction that is reverberating globally. It's a eureka moment the likes of which you only see a few times in a lifetime if you're lucky.
I'm sure AI has real value, but what percent of that comes from LLMs and what contribution OpenAI will wind up making to the business of AI is not very clear. I don't really think the world will be different in ten years than it would have been without openai.
you can make comments like this for just about any product taken to market and downplay the value of the making it mass market, affordable, usable, etc
Imagine downplaying the iPhone by saying they merely combined some things that already existed, as they didn't invent most of the core tech in the first iPhone.
Apple just threw a bunch of money at combining tech that already existed by that premise; and they definitely didn't invent the smartphone. And SpaceX didn't invent rocketry either. And Tesla didn't invent the electric car. It'd be absurd to downplay these things and how difficult they were to bring into routine existence. And Netscape didn't invent the Web browser, and Google didn't invent the search engine, and Amazon didn't invent ecommerce, and Atari + Nintendo didn't invent the video game, and Ford didn't invent the automobile.
Impact also matters a lot more than just being first.