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Comment by farzinadil | Hacker News Reader

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> According to a press release, the brewery has been facing challenging economic factors and declining sales since 2016.

Well before this "doom loop" shit was coined. Seems like a very long, slow loop if that's the case.

Also, it seems like you created your account to talk about the doom loop on this thread. Edit: no, correction, your account is older but this is the only comment?

The doom loop started when SF became so expensive, it started to price out all the people and culture that made it unique and interesting.

That certainly did start decades ago.

I feel you are moving the goal posts. The "doom loop" narrative only emerged in the last few months.

Lots of problems existed for a long time. Affordability is one. Smash and grab at tourist spots is another. Homelessness. Drugs in the tenderloin. All old problems. Then there are the pandemic problems, and relatedly, lack of demand for office and retail.

But there are a bunch of false narratives that SF suddenly became mad max in the last 3 years. That what the people who bring "doom loop" into literally every SF discussion seem to be on about. I suspect the person I replied to is thinking of this.

I've heard quite a few SF people say they welcome this, once all the rich dudes leave it might actually return to being a fun and affordable city again. Let's see :)

Those people are delusional. They should see how the doom loop worked out for detroit.

San Francisco has been a boom and bust town since the beginning, with countless "doom loop" stories. The reality is that it's a desirable city. If we're in a true bust, prices will begin to drop--and those places are quickly filled up with people who can now afford to live here (again). We're not witnessing a drop in demand per se, we're witnessing a decreased demand at the high-end (this is a good thing! it's run out of control for the last decade.) combined with commercial real estate investment that won't lower leases because it devalues their properties and puts their RE investment underwater. (Ultimately, their hands will be forced, of course, which will lead to much lower cost commercial real estate in a highly desirable city with better affordability for homes... again, this is a good thing.)

The problem in Detroit was there was no price low enough to get people to live there when there were so many places with similar amenities and better quality of life nearby. In SF, the second housing prices fall, they're scooped up instantly. People move across the country/world to live in SF even when the job market has been terrible in the past. (There's a lot more to SF than a job.) I'm not saying San Francisco could never fall, but we're nowhere near that reality.

I think this is true. I’d buy in SF immediately if I could.

While I think the people who think this is a good thing are out of their minds, Detroit had entirely different issues, and probably is not a good example for what could happen to SF in the worst case. 1. Detroit has none of the natural advantages SF does. 2. Detroit was hollowed out largely because of the white flight that drove the tax base to the suburbs. 3. Detroit was uniquely built as a highly car friendly city, which meant that once the jobs were gone, there was no good reason to be within Detroit itself. 4. Detroit had no political power at the state level, and if anything, was held up as a punching bag for the rest of the state. This is unlikely to be the case for SF, which is likely to have political support at all levels.

I'd say the worst case scenario for SF is probably a city like Philadelphia, which also went through bad years, but has rebounded and has become a pretty great city in many ways, even if it doesn't have the cachet of its past. And I'd imagine that would be the worst case scenario for SF, and the more likely case would be something much better than that, even if all the wealthiest people left SF.

Exactly. The reality is that San Francisco has lost a lot of people over the last decade, even though our population has grown. We've displaced people through a crisis of (lack of) affordability as wealthier folks have flocked to the city. If we view SF's success purely through population growth, that looks like success, but in practice, it has been a truly devastating decade for so many who loved this city. The demand to live in the city may be just as high today, but the demographics may look less rich. As housing prices slowly come back down to something vaguely closer to earth, some of those people come back -- and new residents eager to take advantage of the quality of life SF offers at a lower price point move in. It's a cycle that's a microcosm of American boom/bust mentality, but SF always comes through with being a beautiful/unique/storied/creative/walkable/dense city.

Detroit is now a fun and affordable city.

It is not.

It is a city that he lost 3/4 of its population, GDP and is still spiraling down.

It has huge abandoned districts. It is hyper-violent.

It has an urban revival that has failed in numbers by population and revenue. But sure, for now it’s “fun”.

"Fun" if you like living in a PvP zone

So only four decades to go before it’s fun again?

Works for long term planning. In the meantime it won’t be fun for locals.

Where do you live?

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