Moreover, all the popular environments support both GTk and Qt fairly well, and both are cross-platform, so you would actually be supporting more users than with a Mac OS-only program.
Really, fragmentation like this is not nearly the issue people make it out to be. Basically, everybody can use everybody else's programs on Linux, with the exception of very odd or customized systems. And the sort of people who have very odd and customized systems can fix problems themselves.
EDIT: Also, you could use wxWidgets. That would give you a native look on all the platforms you support.
I would also like to clarify that I understand an OS X user wanting to write an OS X-only program. The real issue is dissuading others from supporting Linux because of non-existent fragmentation issues. They simply do not affect people using GTk or Qt, in practice.
By that logic Windows should be first since it has the most users. Also, are you sure that the installed base of Gtk+ or Qt (or both) is greater than the installed base of OS X?
There are also cross-platfrom native options like wxWidgets. These also work both on Linux and other systems.
Finally, the last StackOverflow survey[1], which I think is pretty representative of the sort of people who would use a program like this, had both Linux and OS X at about the same level (~20% each). So Linux is certainly not negligible.
[1]: https://www.surveymonkey.com/sr.aspx?sm=2RYrV_2bFw2aZ2RfedWH...
Installed base is irrelevant if you include the libraries or statically link. You'll bloat your download a few MB, but it's manageable.
I don't care what toolkit it gets built in. I typically use Gtk-based environments and stick with Gtk apps but have no problem using a Qt or other toolkit app when it meets a need.
Both GTK and QT are available on OS X, Windows, and Linux. Cocoa is available on OS X only.
For very, very low values of "available", especially when it comes to GTK. If you're going to release a GTK application for OSX, you can just step the release part entirely.
In general, given the demographics of desktop Linux, it's safe to assume everyone has GTK and Qt working, so pick whatever suits you and go for it. (Spotify is Qt IIRC)
You just pick whoever people listen to at the time you make the call. In this case, GTK and Qt have been calling the shots and all Linux installs worth targeting are going to support them or support installing the dependencies necessary (which you can specify in your package, as spotify does).
Flailing about and perpetuating this myth that Linux is impossible to target just makes things worse.