I say this as someone who loves twitter: it's cooked. I spent time on threads earlier today and it is the answer people have been looking for. Nobody has a better track record of giving the users the features they want, even if that means cloning them wholesale from competitors. And more importantly, nobody does hyperscale content moderation better than Meta. If you're a public figure and can get the same/larger engagement as you would on twitter, why continue to bother with it? Twitter is more hostile than it's ever been. Right now my For You tab is filled with content I wouldn't have dreamed of a year or two ago, fight videos, videos of people dying, race war, gender war, you name it. Elon is egging it on, it's a complete mess.

My prediction is twitter will remain the refuge of the long tail. Niche people and communities will stick around, as will I. But that doesn't support billions in ad revenue. Threads will become the "place things happen". The first time a blog post is written about the Epic Dunk that AOC had on Ted Cruz and the screenshots are of Threads, you'll know I was right.