If you can vote with your feet, which is the whole justification for the pay freeze, because it’s hard to walk right now. Doesn’t say much for loyalty later when the labor market tightens again.
The best people can pretty much always vote with their feet. MS may not see significantly higher attrition, but they may still see attrition of significance. I hope so, for all the employees' sakes.
Even programmers that aren't 10X can vote with their feet. The job market isn't bad if you look outside of FAANG, SV, and the Microsofts of the world.