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The yield curve inversion has predicted the last 9 out of the 5 recessions.

Could it also be that the two-year yield is higher (than the 10-year yield) because people expect the fed to lower the FFR after a couple of years after inflation has reached their target?

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> The yield curve inversion has predicted the last 9 out of the 5 recessions.

This is a weak argument and the evidence does not support it: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

Its suggesting that a inverted yield curve alone is as good as a coin toss as far as leading indicators go.

It has a 100% success rate based on my observation. And if we're going to disagree on facts, I'm not sure the point in having any sort of further discussion.

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