> when you offer subsidies for electric cars you can be damn confident that it will displace a gas car. For e-bikes it's less clear

Is it? I could imagine someone saying: "Driving my new Model 3 is much cheaper than my old truck, and more comfortable, so I take more trips around the city. Congestion isn't so bad with autopilot and podcasts."

Or, someone in a dense city: "We got by without a car at all, but we thought about buying an EV and this subsidy made up our minds"