Two take aways: The Russian invaison of Ukraine was among the most stupid ideas of the 21st century. And Ukraine is playing this whole thing incredibly well.
Prigozhin coup attempt is just too clean which looked almost like a well scripted play. I wait a bit longer to access this. For now just treat it as another drama plot in ongoing SMO. Kiev should be more concern now Wagner is in Belarus with closer striking range to Kiev than at Bakhmut.
It's more likely that Prigozhin: wanted to topple military leadership, but Putin chose their side, so he has no other option to go after Putin; sees a window of opportunity to topple Putin and replace him; or is simply paid by a higher bidder.
That said, in such unstable situations pretty much anything can happen. It depends on how rational the actors stay.
No, in its core it is a war of Putin and like minded nationalists longing after Great Russia against the Ukrainian people and their right to exist as an independent country, not being slaves like Lukashenko's Belarus. The whole Europe is helping because they know Putin's victory in Ukraine would mean an existential threat to other territories. And most people just want to live in peace.
History really does repeat itself.
They are the best at preparing the terrain, and have the advantage of being backed by US elite troops for sabotage and assassination, but each time they were involved in a regime change (or even invasion planning), they were caught.
As that old saying goes: "When you do things right, people won't be sure that you have done anything at all."