I'm inclined to agree with your line of thinking but my comment was on the second and third order consequences of what just happened.
When you put rational people in extremely chaotic situations, they tend to make very irrational choices.
As of just a few hours ago we just entered a world where the following is an actual possibility, albeit an unlikely possibility:
Prigozhin closes in, creating an existential crises for Putin and his inner circle.
They believe this is a western backed coup where defeat isn't just personal but also defeat for Russia.
Putin & his inner circle are put in a position to consider retaliation under the context of a rapidly deteriorating existential crises.
I'm a voracious consumer of history and I can tell the one thing you learn from history is how a set of seemingly unrelated harmless dominos change the world overnight whether if its the death of a duke from a second tier power or the ambition of a failed artist.