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> Seeing Westerners instinctively reaching for "the best known source" tells why something like this came as a surprise in the first place, while this exact scenario been a watercooler talk for most Russians, both in Ukraine, and Russia itself.

> Why Western experts driving the conversation on Russia, China, etc are completely blind to things known to every highschooler?

I’m not sure I follow you here. You’re saying that Westerners don’t understand things even known to high schoolers in Russia. I believe you.

But then you say it’s because we try and find the best source for our information, and that also seems true. But it also seems like you’re saying that that’s the wrong course of action?

It reads like you’re telling us that our sources aren’t good enough, but also complaining that we’re trying to find good sources.

At any rate, I don’t happen to know any Russian high schoolers, so I have no way of asking them directly what it is that they talk about at the watercooler. I’d ask you, but that would just be me instinctively reaching for another “best known source”.

He is complaining that the West does a poor job of elevating well-informed commenters to prominence. Having close association to the Soviet/Russia watching community since the 1980s, I agree. The problem is that the kind of people who get the on-the-ground experience you need are not the type who play politics well and rise in organizations.

It's also because journalists are experts in nothing but journalism.

Instead of finding domain experts and giving them communications training and a platform to reach an audience, we instead find people with nothing useful to share, and give them journalism degrees.

Journalism should be an activity that our most knowledgeable people do, not our least.

> finding domain experts and giving them communications training and a platform to reach an audience

Good journalism is hard. Being a domain expert in some area doesn’t naturally translate into a talent or passion for journalism or public outreach.

Overall, I do agree with you. I just think it’s easier said than done. I’d say the legacy blue checks were often an example of what you’re describing—but those are now meaningless for evaluating if someone is a domain expert.

> Seeing Westerners instinctively reaching for "the best known source" tells why something like this came as a surprise in the first place

Except for the specific timing, it didn’t, really. The spiralling conflict between Prigozhin and the military establishment has been heavily covered in Western media, that a catastrophic breach was a likely eventuality has been talked about by Western experts for a while, and was seen as particularly likely with the recent move to consolidate control of the PMCs under MoD command, which was viewed as directed very much at Prigozhin specifically.

Maybe you missed this blog post of Timothy Snyder [1] from October last year:

  Is it a stretch to suppose that Prigozhin is sparing whatever valuable men and material he has left?  He has been openly recruiting Russian prisoners to fight for Wagner in Ukraine; I would venture the supposition that he is sending them to die and keeping back the men and equipment who might have a future in some other endeavor. [...] In the overall logic that I am describing, rivals would seek to conserve whatever fighting forces they have, either to protect their own personal interests during an unpredictable time, or to make a play for Moscow.

[1] https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-w...

"the best known source" is specific to each individual. I've never scene the referenced site before the post today so am unlikely to take what it says at face value with out more research. As someone who follows the news on the war by reading understandingwar.org I'm not surprised this has happened.

> while this exact scenario

And of course, no citation ever given. Every Russian is woke and we’re just ignorant.

Every western expert everywhere has been saying forever that Putin wasn’t going anywhere until someone in the defense arena had enough to take on the security state. And it won’t matter how it turns out, as the new Vlad will be the same as the old Vlad.

We know all we need to know abput Russia. A people without agency looking for a new daddy.