This is absurd. It makes no sense. I'm calling psyop.
Ina traditional coup on MONDAY at 3 am soldiers roll into the TV stations and various government buildings. They announcing a change of government and people turn up to work Monday morning.
On Friday evening?! They must be copying the failed Turkey coup that had to move forwards because they were uncovered.
This is a military coup. The army is in Zaporizhia. Moscow is defended by the FSB and national guard. Prigozhin needs to rally disgruntled forces to his side to enable him to move his troops. Quietly maneuvering would hand the narrative to the regime.
Might as well see the world end in style.
Ah, yes, all 3 regiments, none left in Moscow.
Nobody said Moscow is undefended. Just less able to defend itself than usual. Much of the Russian Western military district is deployed towards Ukraine. Sensibly, Putin’s most loyal should have been held back. But the war is going terribly. If his loyalists were forward deployed, that changes the calculus.
The 1st Guards Tank Army, which includes the elite units traditionally tasked with Moscow's defense, the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division and the 4th Guards Tank Division has been heavily committed in Ukraine for most of the war.
There is a defensive plan activated and deployment of forces in Moscow, sure, but Wagner has a lot of troops and combat experience, and what Russia has kept available at home mostly aren’t regular army troops, but Nationa Guard troops mainly used for intimidating civilians.
3% is not enough to keep the lights in a country this big.
It's no question where are the most but 3%? Doubt it.
There are different kinds of blows directed at leadership that work primarily by surprise seizure or elimonation of key personnel and/or facilities, perhaps the most traditional “military coup”.
There are mass mutinies by military formations, which are essentially armed direct-action protests by troops, often under their established leadership. A sizable formation declaring them and calling on others to join is not at all unheard of. Functionally, they can succeed as a form of coup or half-coup (replacing the top leadership or forcing concessions) while retaining the basic state infrastructure, or end up as a key part of a more complete revolution (or, obviously, just fail). They are a very real historical thing.
I've heard multiple times that the "Wagner" group has actually been set up by the FSB and that this Prigozhin character is just a front man. Which makes sense, because how would a single individual set up such a large military organization?
It is possible that the troops have become loyal to him. They'd still have to fight the entire Russian, Chechen, Belarus, ... armies.
Why the psyop? Last time that guy made compromising videos was shortly before the fall of Bakhmut as a distraction. For all we know he is still FSB.
But if you and I can figure that out in five minutes from around the world it’s unlikely that battle-hardened war leaders will fall for a trap.
Prigozhin has an army, one which is vital to Putin's war effort. Do you really think Prigozhin wouldn't turn on Putin given the opportunity?
So this may very well be the final fight between the two.