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> If West reacted in 2008 how they react now - we could have saved 100s of thousand of people AND avoided 2 wars and billions in military and humanitarian spending. We didn't, because it was easier in the short term to look the other way.

That feels like 1930s and policy of appeasement, when Germany was taking back Rhineland, creating Luftwaffe, annexing Austria and France with Britain were just looking and doing nothing. Then Munich agreement came about and France with Britain signed it because they did not wanted to do anything. The rest of history is just WW2.

It is almost comical to think, that WW2 in Europe could have been reduced to local conflict between Germany and France fighting over Rhineland.

WW2 became almost unavoidable the moment the US got involved in WW1 in 1916.

As a history professor I had once said, “the only reason they stopped World War 1 was because they lost an entire generation of soldiers”.

> If West reacted in 2008 how they react now - we could have saved 100s of thousand of people AND avoided 2 wars and billions in military and humanitarian spending.

I don't think this true. The successful resistance to Russia is due to the current strength of Ukraine's military. They have been improving rapidly in response to 2014. Georgia is nowhere near as strong or easy for us to supply.

In the particular case of Georgia they weren't as insane in 2008 as it seems from the first glance. Russia was separated from Georgia by Caucasian mountains. Upto 5000 meters high. There are a few routes (famously the "Georgian war route" which I visited recently) going through long mountain tunnels which if collapsed would make the defense pretty easy (assuming NATO provides air defence weapons and intelligence).

Georgia is pretty sparsely populated apart from the capital - half of the population lives in Tbilisi. Relatively easy to create air defense for such a country.

Georgians took one of these routes early on and tried to collapse the tunnels but were driven back by russian airforce before they could do it.

Given enough material support it was perfectly possible to stop Russia there. But I wasn't even talking about that - even just introducing serious sanctions in 2008 would probably prevent the further escalations by Russia. Instead we persuaded Putin that we are divided and won't react. So he tried in Ukraine and Syria. And Ukraine again.

And when we finally reacted seriously he's suddenly surprised and accuses us of "trapping him" :)

"But Russia and China are definitely the bad guys in comparison."

I agree in the case of Russia, China seems to be dovish in regard of Ukraine.

"If West reacted in 2008 how they react now - we could have saved 100s of thousand of people AND avoided 2 wars"

I'm not sure here. My guess is Merkel and Macron were right in 2008: trying to get Ukraine and Georgia into NATO would have meant war with Russia. (actually Russia and Georgia fought a war in 2008 about South Ossetia).

In my opinion Russia is the bad revisionist guy, but the politics of the West were amateurish and reckless. And in my opinion Ukraine needs a deal and it should have tried to keep Minsk 2. And I do not see this as colonial mindset, as Ukrainian I would think the same.

> And in my opinion Ukraine needs a deal and it should have tried to keep Minsk 2. And I do not see this as colonial mindset, as Ukrainian I would think the same.

Why does Ukraine need a deal? Ukraine already has at least one international agreement that Russia signed saying they would never threaten the borders of Ukraine in anyway.

What is going to stop Russia from breaking any future deals, like they have broken deals in the past?.

What Ukraine needs is for Russia to leave because they realise that staying in Ukraine is too devastating for their country.

Evidently this the only thing Russia understands, force.

If Canada WANTED to become a vassal state of China what do you think the Americans would do?

> If Canada WANTED to become a vassal state of China what do you think the Americans would do?

Not much, probably sanction them, cut off ties and generally cease trade.

But I don’t think they’d invade, nor do I think if they did invade they would commit the horrible crimes (genocide, rape and torture of children, etc) that the Russians seem to love to do.

> And I do not see this as colonial mindset

yes, that's usually how this works

> My guess is Merkel and Macron were right in 2008: trying to get Ukraine and Georgia into NATO would have meant war with Russia

Merkel just wanted cheap resources and "strategic independence" of USA. Nobody actually expected NATO vs Russia war in 2008 no matter which decision was taken. It was selfish and short-term politics, simple as that.

> as Ukrainian I would think the same

Ukrainians overwhelmingly disagree, but I'm sure you would be in the minority that is "right" :) You know better without actually living there after all :)

As a Western European, I am privileged and the simplest and perhaps best thing would be to just keep my mouth shut.

But I actually have an opinion and this carnage is terrible.

I am against participation in the war and stand by it. Western war mongers do more harm than good, and no one should rely on them.

(the political situation is very different, but it is a lesson anyway, do not trust your allies, they have their own agenda)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_betrayal

I am Polish. Western betrayal is a popular view here, but not universal (my own opinion is that it was bad luck - the combination of underestimating new military doctrine of blitzkrieg and the rise of USSR, nobody was planning on betrayal).

The plans before WW2 were for Poland to defend for several months before the help arrives. WW1 made it look realistic. Blitzkrieg made it impossible, but it's anachronistic to view it as a betrayal. They simply didn't knew.

Anyway, no matter how you look at it - Poles still fought for returning to the "western Europe" after that "betrayal". Because west might "betray" you, but Russia will genocide, censor, torture and exploit you till barely anything remains.

These are the choices people in Eastern Europe have to make.

If West didn't joined WW2 - Holocaust would finish succesfully. Then the plan was to starve most of Slavs, keep the rest as slaves and settle German colonizers in Ukraine to feed the 3rd Reich.

By now we would have Nazis control half of Europe and have nukes. Much better? Or maybe the "warmongers" had a point?

Ukrainians tried to find peace with Russia since 1991. There's just no way to do it. Russia wants to annex the whole Ukraine. They openly say this on their TV. And russian occupation isn't "safe". If you participated in any patriotic organisation, if you have Ukrainian tattoo, if you were important cultural or political figure - you are on russian list and they will kill you after they occupy Ukraine. This already happens on occupied territories. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/21/us-claims-russ...

Ukrainians don't have a choice. And people like you make their situation worse.

You know the situation in Central Europe from direct experience, for me it's more abstract.

I do not rule out that I am wrong and that a tolerable agreement with Russia is not possible.

But then the problem of defeating a nuclear-armed state remains.

The few pacifist-minded people like me are not relevant anyway. But it is relevant that the West ultimately does not want nuclear war, and also avoids sending troops. The support is enough for a long bloody war, the outcome is uncertain, I am pessimistic.

I agree: this is not planned betrayal (though there is some cynicism) but may end catastrophically anyway.

> But then the problem of defeating a nuclear-armed state remains.

Why is this any different to the many times in the past a nuclear armed state has lost a war?.

Mearsheimer is not liked, but he predicted this tragedy.

Mearsheimer: Russia Sees ‘Existential Threat,’ Must Win

https://peaceworker.org/2022/04/mearsheimer-russia-sees-exis...

> Mearsheimer is not liked, but he predicted this tragedy. His Mearsheimer:Russia Sees ‘Existential Threat,’ Must Win

>https://peaceworker.org/2022/04/mearsheimer-russia-sees-exis...

When Russia saw an existential threat when Wagner was marching towards Moscow nothing happened.

Russia doesn’t understand appeasement they only understand force.

It’s kinda sad how badly the realists like Mearsheimer have utterly failed to model Russian behaviour.

Giving Russia appeasements in Ukraine would just embolden them to try again.

They must lose decisively.

Any threat of nuclear war from Russia pales in comparison to the threat of future wars when nuclear proliferation goes through the roof, because you can invade whoever you feel and always win with nukes.

Mearsheimer is not liked

For his penchant for pushing half-truths, and intellectually distorted reasoning in other forms.

He explained: (1) the root cause lies in the April 2008 NATO summit Declaration that Ukraine (and Georgia) “will become members of NATO”;

The root cause of what happened to the so-called victim was their going out dressed like that last night. Also, if anything that summit was known for conspicuously "kicking the can down the road": It was more notable for declining to accept their applications of that time, precisely because of Russia's objections -- instead downgrading them to "aspirant" status.

There is no evidence in what Putin has said that he wants to make Ukraine part of Russia,” Mearsheimer adds.

Well, not all of it. He just wanted to annex parts of it. Leaving behind a rump state permanently pliable to Moscow's interests.

> He explained: (1) the root cause lies in the April 2008 NATO summit Declaration that Ukraine (and Georgia) “will become members of NATO”

Its important to note, that this statement (and, particularly, the accompanyiny decision not to offer Membership Action Plans to Georgia and Ukraine at the time) was reporting a positive response to Russia’s urgent demands to delay Georgia and Ukraine admission to promote regional peace and stability.

Also worth noting that, yes, Russia immediately invaded Georgia after it, so there is a pretty good argument that this acquiescence is a key turning point in Russian aggression, but this undermines rather than supports that the problem was NATO expansion—the problem was NATO weakness.

> If West reacted in 2008 how they react now - we could have saved 100s of thousand of people AND avoided 2 wars and billions in military and humanitarian spending.

Yes, had NATO rebuffed Russia’s lies about its peaceful intentions in the region and its protestations of the destabilizing effect of extending MAPs to Ukraine and Georgia and extended both countries MAPs and interim security guarantees in 2008, the sequence of Russia-initiated wars that began immediately after they succeeded in tricking NATO would not have occurred. That is eminently clear in retrospect; Russia was trying to buy breathing room for intervention, and succeeded.

To be fair, that was far from clear prospectively at the time; it wasn’t like Hitler overtly seeking the Sudetenland after the Anschluss: aggressive expansionism hadn’t been telegraphed, and it wasn’t a “give them a bit, and they won’t take more” situation. The people who made the wrong choices in 2008 weren’t in the position as the people arguing for appeasement today, despite the last 15 years of history.

It was clear to everybody in Eastern Europe. See:

> Poland's Lech Kaczyński in August 2008 traveled to Tbilisi together with the presidents of Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia to show solidarity with Georgia in the face of Russia's invasion of that country, according to accounts by officials.

> He said at the time: "Today Georgia, tomorrow Ukraine, the day after tomorrow the Baltic states, and then, perhaps, the time will come for my country, Poland."

https://www.polskieradio.pl/395/7785/artykul/2353833,11-year...

Its true Eastern European NATO members have been more cautious of. Russia, but its worth noting this was a response to the invasion of Georgia and I was referring to decisions at NATO prior.

So if Canada or Mexico decides to pivot toward China you think the Elites in Washington would stand idly by?

If USA invaded Mexico or Canada I would support defending them. But I don't think it would happen.

Fair enough. But the point is geopolitics, not what is right. The USA would not tolerate China in their "sphere of influence". Krushchev and Cuba learned that. Russia is a nuclear power. Policy makers in the US State department should remind themselves of this fact however inconvenient.

>> The USA would not tolerate China in their "sphere of influence". Krushchev and Cuba learned that.

1. Nobody takes "spheres of influence" seriously in modern day. It's a 19th century simplification that divides countries into empires and colonies. It doesn't really describe the complexity of modern day international relations where even very small countries like Iceland can have disproportional impact.

2. China is building a military base in Cuba, and yet you are probably not even aware of that, because again, the world is a little bit more complex than what you've become to believe and officials operate with more than just a phone line to bomber command.