> Tesla FSD navigating the complex city streets of LA for 60 minutes with zero human intervention.
17 fatalities, 736 crashes: The shocking toll of Tesla’s Autopilot
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/06/10/tesla-a...
17 fatalities, 736 crashes: The shocking toll of Tesla’s Autopilot
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/06/10/tesla-a...
I disagree.
What I want to know, is is it safe? Not is it safer than the average human driver, but is it safe in an absolute sense.
When a human driver crashes we can almost always pin the cause down to human error. Errors caused by some human failing, being less than they could be. The promise of machines is that they are consistent. They are never "less than they could be", but are consistently at their best.
Comparing humans and machines is comparing dogs and roses - it is interesting a rose smells better, interesting a dog is more loving (or fierce), but not a valid comparison
Self driving cars stand or fall on their own capabilities.
2. What would a good absolute number for that period be? Our threshold can't be zero or we'd have to give up every technology from showers/baths (~60x more deadly) to fresh produce (E. coli, salmonella, listeria).
Zero accidents caused by the failure of the software. (Clearly a good system may have some obscure bug that makes it fail - but failure of a self driving system should cause uproar and consternation - unlike the reaction of Tesla to the deaths caused by their systems, it seems)
If I slip over in the shower it is not because the shower head went rouge and strangled me. If a shower was designed that in the period of one year strangled eleven people (a fair comparison to Tesla's record) imagine that?
Point being your comparisons (food poisoning or household mishaps) are not relevant
- About 43,000 American motorists died in 2021. If we have a way to prevent many of their deaths with software, would you not want to unless you could prevent every death?
- Why is a software tool failure different from any other tool failure? Brakes can fail, wheels can fall off) (happened to me once), etc. Listeria in produce is a failure in the production chain. Showers can be made safer. You use your car/shower/spinach and some day, for reasons entirely beyond your control, it might kill you.
- Why isn't the driver to blame in a Tesla? They're supposed to be watching and responsible.
- There's no clear distinction between what's a software failure and what isn't. Collisions have multiple contributing factors. Perfect software will still have collisions. The numbers reported aren't just collisions where the Tesla was at fault. One person was killed by a self-driving vehicle when a person jumped a concrete barrier and ran across the highway at night. The human driver couldn't react in time, and the software didn't see them. Is that a software failure? At what point do we accept that a collision is no longer the car's fault?
But on the other hand, if you can identify the most accident prone group of humans, and require them to use AI cars, and with this you could significantly reduce the number of road kills/accidents, wouldn't that be an improvement?
"Ford’s BlueCruise Ousts GM’s Super Cruise as CR’s Top-Rated Active Driving Assistance System - Tesla Autopilot falls to midpack as other high-tech systems improve" (Jan 2023) - https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-safety/active-drivi...
"...Of the 12 ADA systems we just finished testing, Ford BlueCruise came out on top, followed by Cadillac Super Cruise and Mercedes-Benz Driver Assistance. Tesla, once an innovator in ADA with its Autopilot system, fell from its second-place showing in 2020 to seventh this time around—about the middle of the pack. That’s because Tesla hasn’t changed Autopilot’s basic functionality much since it first came out, instead just adding more features to it, says Fisher...
...“After all this time, Autopilot still doesn’t allow collaborative steering and doesn’t have an effective driver monitoring system. While other automakers have evolved their ACC and LCA systems, Tesla has simply fallen behind.”..."
How many Tesla cars with full self driving are there compared to regular cars?
A Tesla with FSD will only be using FSD a small fraction of the time.
If we had statistics on the number of hours FSD was active compared to the number of hours all other car driving of all cars we might be able to compared these numbers.
Hour wise, I think normal driving is way above 7500:1.
Yes, if the AI power tools chop off less limbs than the human controlled power tools, I would find that acceptable.