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You may be interested to know that people whose job requires them to be epistemologically rigorous do not think in this way:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_epistemology#Fundamen...
Go back to June 1 for a good example of lots of lightning in the right area. https://imgur.com/a/LcM8sMe
June 6 also has some in the same rough area of Quebec
So, uh, keep in mind that some commenters might be Just Asking Questions.