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There are more than two groups who could have done this. The Wagner Group could have done it independently. Ukrainians or Russians could have done it thinking it advances their goals. Who it benefits, hurts, and who could have done it is messy.
Whatever you are doesn't make you some genius either.
We're all just people. Trying to understand an incredibly complicated situation doesn't make someone stupid.
It's a direct description of genocide they aren't shy to openly talk about. And yet the situation is still somehow very complicated to understand.
But here we have in the free world, with access to all the information from the internet and who can read what journalists all over the world report, who still choose to believe a state that act in the exact same manner.
At least in Nazigermany the narrative was controlled and it was difficult to "see the other side".
It's absolutely crazy how even ridiculous propaganda can be effective.
(And yes, some of the Russian propaganda is absolutely ridiculous.)
But it's precisely because we're sitting in a comfy chair that we have to ask for credible sources. "Fog of War" is a real thing and disinformation campaigns have been integral to this war. Most people here couldn't pinpoint this dam on a map and it's not immediately obvious that this isn't some tactical decision by ukraine to advance their counter operation.
To you it might be obvious that this is part of russias illegal war, to me it's not and i'd rather wait a few days until things clear up instead of rushing to judgement without understanding it.
It will take several days until people outside the Ukrainian and Russian government can have any idea what really happened. But to paint me as a Russian sympathizer because I don't know for sure what happened in a warzone hours after reports started coming out is just incredibly stupid.
But that doesn't mean that we - normal citizens in comfy chairs - can't try to look through the fog of war. No reason to go into the Reddit outrage mode. It's very possible that Ukraine has made a mistake or expects some military advantage from the dam breaking. But its also very possible that Russia broke the dam, to enhance their defense. Or it was an honest mistake due to lack of maintenance. Or it was a partisan group, who are active in this area. We will probably only really know in 2-3 months, when independent western experts have finished their investigation, anyone stating "facts" beforehand is just making up stuff. It isn't "victim" blaming to keep some rational mind in this conflict. We all know that Russia is a genocidal aggressor, but we also know that Ukraine is intentionally spreading misinformation, to gain military advantages.
You have three potential explanations:
(1) The agressor, who:
- Has a history of using the very same tactics in Ukraine and sacrificing thousands of its citizens in burnt Earth approach,
- Has shot down a commercial airline "by mistake" several years ago
- Has a history and culture of endemic lying, which they also foster in Western countries through soft power and social network campaigns
- Who have started shelling the very citizens in Kherson they claimed to have liberated once they lost the city
- Benefits from the flooding massively, because it blocks off the looming counteroffensive by Ukraine
(2) The victim, who:
- Gains nothing on the battlefield by doing this and actually makes it more difficult for them.
- Has to sacrifice the lives of its own civilian population to achieve this.
- Has no history of such misinformation tactics.
(3) Force majeur.
But wait, here come the enlightened HN commenters to assign equal probability to all three explanations, disregarding all of the above, because:
- They haven't bothered to actually inform themselves (thinking that *oligarchs*, even with a Ukrainian citizenship, have nothing to do with russian secret service is another level of naive)
- They feel entitled to have an uninformed opinion
- Imply that the lives of Ukrainians are worth so little that their government would willingly sacrifice them.
Thanks, but I'll keep the outrage.