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1. Japan is horrifically behind in software engineering compared to its neighbours, especially China. This is because of a culture that undervalues software engineers (Who don't tend to thrive in a lifetime employment/de-facto unionised environment)
2. This has started to lead into an existential threat to its entertainment industry. Genshin Impact is the most successful anime-styled game in existence (including in Japan), yet it is made by China. Why? Because China could get top tier students to work on the games, making a mobile game on a technical level that is impossible to match by Japan.
3. Now AI is out, and China is behind US, but still far ahead of Japan. Japan has two choices:
A: Let Chinese companies train their models on all of Japan's cultural outputs (All of anime/manga). Then those companies will both use the models to produce output, and sell the models back to Japanese companies. Making Japan lose by every definition. Most of the top SD anime finetunes are made by Chinese enthusiasts. So this is not a prediction, its already a reality.
B: Go all in on pro-AI policies. Giving Japanese companies legal certainty to start training their own large models. Japanese artists will still suffer losses, but at least the profits stay in Japan.
I should note Japan's artists are also not losing out that much. Anime, despite being extremely popular, is currently in complete production collapse, with even flagship shows having regular unscheduled 'breaks' because of production chaos. This collapse is because of lack of low level animators, who are so poorly paid that no one is joining the profession, and is generally outsourced anyways. AI isn't killing well paid jobs, it is replacing an already unviable job. Japan will still dominate in the higher tiers of production, and won't even need to outsource anything anymore.
Japan is not anime. You can't just come up with some theories about how something may affect anime (which is debatable in any case) and then claim it is therefore the context behind Japan's policies. It's interesting that you criticize GP for thinking policy making is "some binary battle between 'billionaires and commoners'" and then explain that it's actually about Genshin Impact.
Eh, I doubt it.
AI is potentially something that can massively increase productivity. With a declining population in the foreseeable future, an increased productivity may well be a boost that they need.
When new capability appears, many industries pop up. It's a new market, a new gold rush. It happened many times, with cars, electricity, air transport, computers, internet. AI will spring many applications and will create jobs in those fields.
We have been under a 260 year run of industrial revolution and 70 years of computer programming. And yet unemployment is low and IT jobs are well paid. Why do we have so many jobs? The computers are 1 million times faster now than 25 years ago, more deployed and better networked. Where is that productivity gain hiding?
If we try to be realistic, current crop AI amounts to about 1.2x productivity gain. It's a nice to have thing, but not essential yet. It's really nice. But makes errors often enough that it almost negates its advantages. Error recovery is very costly.
I foresee economic growth driven by AI, and people with AI skills being very efficient and well paid. AI shines most when it is used and then evaluated by a skilled human.
Naive at best, tone deaf at worst. Unemployment is low? Most jobs barely allow a person to live a decent life. AI will empower few, the rest will find themselves unable to create any value. All the "economic growth" will be the increasing profits and economic inequality.
When cars were created anyone could foresee the demand of people to manufacture them. Tell me, what jobs will AI create?
Would love to see the government report that backs this claim up though ...
It benefits the top 1%, everyone else is just trying to get by on scraps.
Nothing new there.