The reality is, despite the opinions of the armchair quarterbacks commenting here, no-one in the world has any clue whether AGI is possible in the next twenty years, just as no-one predicted scaling up transformers would result in GPT-4.
The reality is, despite the opinions of the armchair quarterbacks commenting here, no-one in the world has any clue whether AGI is possible in the next twenty years, just as no-one predicted scaling up transformers would result in GPT-4.
The fear over AI is a displaced fear of unaccountable social structures with extinction-power that currently exist and we allow to continually exist. Without these structures AI is harmless to the species, even superintelligence.
Your (reasonable) counter-argument might be that somebody (like, say, my dumb self) accidentally mixes their computers just right and creates an intelligence that escapes into the wild. The plot of Ex Machina is a reasonable stand-in for such an event. I am also going to assume the intelligence would desire to kill all humans. Either the AI would have to find already existing extinction-power in society, or it would need to build it. In either case the argument is against building extinction-power in the first place.
My (admittedly cynical) take about this round of regulation is about several first-movers in AI to write legislation that is favorable to them and prevents any meaningful competition.
...
Ok, enough cynicism. Lets talk some solutions. Nuclear weapons are an instructive case of both handling (or not) of extinction-power and the international diplomacy the world can engage to manage such a power.
One example is the Outer Space Weapons Ban treaty - we can have a similar ban of AI in militaries. Politically one can reap benefits of deescalation and peaceful development, while logistically it prevents single-points-of-failure in a combat situation. Those points-of-failures sure are juicy targets for the opponent!
As a consequence of these bans and treaties, institutions arose that monitor and regulate trans-national nuclear programs. AI can likewise have similar institutions. The promotion and sharing of information would prevent any country from gaining an advantage, and the inspections would deter their military application.
This is only what I could come up with off the top of my head, but I hope it shows a window into the possibilities of meaningful political commitments towards AI.
I think having a moratorium on AI development will be impossible to enforce, and as you stretch the timeline out, these negative outcomes become increasingly likely as the technical barriers to entry continue to fall.
I've personally assumed this for thirty years, the only difference now is that the timeline seems to be accelerating.
It's extremely unclear, in fact, whether such a ban would be enforceable.
Detecting outer space weapons is easy. Detecting whether a country is running advanced AIs in their datacenter is a lot harder.
Go ahead and bet. I doubt you're putting your money on AGI.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_Guz73e6fw&pp=ygUWbGV4IGZya...
[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcVfceTsD0A&pp=ygUXbGV4IGZya...
It's all very vague and "handwavy". How is it going to kill us all? Why do we subsidize it if it is so dangerous?
Almost all risks they mention would be better mitigated by making governemental use of any AI related system stop immediately as the risks are too high there (misapplication of the force of governement is much more dangerous than people playing around with chat gpt and being misled) and put on hold until dangers and benefits are better understood. Maybe keeping liscences for developpment and nationalising the labs doing it? Fines for anyone caught working on one?