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> no one actually expects the US to default.

That is the definition of a Black Swan. US political parties have audaciously risked the foundations of democracy for the advancement of their own political agendas. It is my forecast that the Speaker of the House's political fragility in ensuring adherence to any concurred deal, may well manifest as the Black Swan, potentially precipitating a default.

If you don't know your political leanings this is a great way to find out: If you actually believe a default is possible you are a Democrat. If you don't think it's possible you are a moderate or a Republican.

Read the comments with this in mind and see how people just have such different worldviews.

There's no way the Tariff of Abominations will actually _pass_!

JPMorgan says 25% chance

https://xkcd.com/1132/

bet you 50 bucks it won't happen

A lot of Americans are really tired of some of the things the federal government has been doing and would be more than happy to see it stop by whatever means possible, even if that means some short term economic hardship.