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Comment by rngname22 | Hacker News Reader

Has Zeihan really surpassed Thiel on HN for who gets to be called by the first name Peter?

This dude is the absolute most entertaining geopolitical analyst, perhaps because no one else is filling this niche?

Is anyone else filling it? Any reason they aren't blowing up right now?

The thing is, Zeihan seems to be wrong a lot or most of the time about the particularities of his claims, yet his delivery is in a tone that is almost confident to the point of parody. Why doesn't he ever show any self doubt? I guess because that's a big part of his entertainment value, the showmanship. It doesn't stand up to scrutiny though if you watch for a couple years and then go back and look at the old videos.

We've yet to hear him really explain in a coherent way why piracy will suddenly plague the global oceans just because the US Navy won't patrol as consistently.

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He's the Jim Cramer of geopolitics...

> We've yet to hear him really explain in a coherent way

It's hard to explain geopolitics in a coherent way in a five minute video...

I listened to one of his videos on China, and as a long-time China-watcher, I was not impressed. In fact, I closed the tab and wrote him off. He identified most of the factors influencing China's political situation, which he confidently extrapolated as actual fact. Much of what he said was not unreasonable as a working hypothesis of what might be going on specific to that area, but it was certainly highly unlikely to be accurate. The whole picture was definitely not accurate.

Compared to the clarity of thought of, say, John Mearsheimer or Ian Shapiro, who are scholars, I found Zeihan to be a waste of time.

> Is anyone else filling it? Any reason they aren't blowing up right now?

This is my first exposure to Peter Zeihan (and geopolitical youtubers in general), so I can't really say. From a purely financial point of view Patrick Boyle covers stuff like this (with understated humor), and he's got 100k more subscribers.

Relevant recent videos:

Would a BRICS common currency work? 22 minutes - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHZnVdBZJfA

The Weaponization Of The Dollar 20 minutes - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9HoPF0_a6A

Brazil and Argentina - A Common Currency? 18 minutes - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4H5X4fjq90

The Death of Globalization! 23 minutes - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5ejv-dTAaU&t=185s

China's Overseas Bailouts! 18 minutes - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfeDXy0bJb8

I had no idea who he was before picking up End of the World Is Just the Beginning and I read it cover to cover. He is just very entertaining.

Not even the slightest bit self-doubt when he says China won't exist in 10 years lol.

The amount of salt I take him with would be deadly for anyone with high blood pressure but he is so much fun.

I think a big part of his act is telling Americans what we hope will happen while not believing it will. Also plays on the idea "everything you know is wrong" .

I would recommend Niall Ferguson and especially the Good Fellas show/podcast/youtube show from Stanford Hoover Institution.

To contrast Niall with Zeihan on China, we are in Cold War 2 that will last multiple generations. When debt payments surpass military spending it tends to be the beginning of the end for an empire. The problem with Niall is I think he is actually talking about reality.

He gets massive credit for predicting that Russia would invade Ukraine when everybody else was predicting the opposite.

Everybody just ignores that he's had far more wrong predictions than correct ones.

For instance, he's been predicting the collapse of China within a decade for almost 20 years now.

Not to mention that experts[0][1] that understood the regions political situation and history were calling out that there would be issues between Russia and the Ukraine that may ultimately lead to war as we see now, especially after the initial annexations of parts of the Ukraine by Russia in the 2010s

[0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

[1]: https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-t...

“Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault”

Just beyond parody. Such expertise.

The difference is the certainty. Zeihan says something will happen. Real experts say something might happen.

> We've yet to hear him really explain in a coherent way why piracy will suddenly plague the global oceans just because the US Navy won't patrol as consistently.

Ostensibly, because it's profitable to do so. Probably more profitable than before the US got tough on pirates.

I think the bigger concern for America (really free speech) is that if America isn't keeping international trade safe and secure then another nation or entity will be.

That entity might not like the idea of freedom of speech and expression as much as Good Ol' Uncle Sam does. Then they can start dictating terms and sanctions since they control trade.

Does he explain why all the other navies in the world disappear? Much of the anti-piracy patrols are done by other navies, like EU, India, and China. Any of the blue water navies are strong enough to prevent piracy. As are regional navies in the area. If they get together, as the European or Asian ones are likely to do, then they can suppress it worldwide.

I saw him on a recent interview after my YT algo started sending me his stuff, and he seemed to almost suggest the possibility of privateers (state-sponsored piracy) by local regional powers (he also predicts the collapse of the superpower structure into a model of more local/regional powers), or that in cases where it benefited regional powers they'd turn a blind eye?

Still makes no sense to me.

> We've yet to hear him really explain in a coherent way why piracy will suddenly plague the global oceans just because the US Navy won't patrol as consistently.

He always explains it in very coherent terms that no other country has a navy capable of overpowering pirates on the deep sea. The fact that it's plain obvious bullshit doesn't make it incoherent.

Personally, I think it's very valuable that he puts it on every video of his. It has a very effective impact on audience selection.

The US Navy isn't special for privacy prevention. The things that make it special, carriers, Marines, and submarines, don't help with piracy. Without those, it is a large (but not the largest) navy. It is missing smaller ships that are most useful.

For the Malacca Strait, the most important navies are Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. They could all police it together now, and with the some cooperation and improvement could each do it separately.

Predicting the future is hard, and you don't have to necessarily be right, only have helped prepare for the outcome (even if not what you predicted). Peter sells motivation to manage risk.

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