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Comment by mrguyorama | Hacker News Reader

Actually that's a great analogy. It would be like if the US tried to invade and conquer parts of Mexico and turn it into a new state in the year 2023. You know, that thing that will never fucking happen. We also invaded Canada a couple times back when we were dumber, but notice how Canada and Mexico are actually pretty pleased to be our allies, despite our faults, and they aren't seeking protection from foreign alliances to prevent us invading them again, because they largely believe we would never do that again, because the world is very different and we are very intertwined and wish to be cooperating countries.

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This was a response to a question asking why Russia has any influence over Ukraine's alliance choices. The US exerts similar influence over the foreign policy of its neighbors, as does China, which is right now aggressively pushing on Taiwan for this reason. It is the reality of larger powers interacting with smaller ones. No one said the current situation in Canada or Mexico is the exact same. Nor did I say any of this justifies Russia's choices. But IF, say Mexico, started to flirt with an oppositional alliance, this would be countered, with war as a last resort if the other strategies failed. This has been done several times before in US history (eg in Cuba, we backed a local revolt against Spain to take control of the island and other Spanish possessions. In the 1960s we again threatened nuclear war against the Soviets for expansion there and embargoed the country for half a century). And the fact you are so dismissive of US action in Mexico is a big blind spot. The cartels in Mexico control significant territory adjacent to the US. US federal agencies have been deeply intertwined with the Mexican government's efforts to curtail the cartels, but these have failed. Special forces already operate there. The likelihood of direct US action is not high right now but is certainly plausible within 20 years, especially if the cartels make further inroads within the offical government. US congressmen have just this year proposed legislation allowing "military capabilities" against the cartels. The world is different, but some things don't change, and more powerful countries dictating some of the policy of their less powerful neighbours is one of them.

You know, that thing that will never fucking happen.

Exactly. To the extent that there's any validity in looking at the current situation between the US and its larger neighbors, it completely demolishes the idea that we should have some understanding or other respect for Russia's actions in Ukraine.

Based on it being "unavoidable", or "what else did you expect Putin to do?" or any of that crap.

Have you read Bill Barr's opinion piece in the WSJ about the use of military force against Mexican cartels, in support of the bill authorising such use of military capabilities by Reps Waltz and Crenshaw? I never said this war was unavoidable--actually it was very avoidable. Nor did I say Putin had no other choice, so I don't know what youre on about there.

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