> 75% chance that within 5 to 7 years there could be a period of no ice cap [paraphrasing]
If you look at the trend line between 1995 and 2010 in the NASA data this was a reasonable prediction. The Northwest passage is now open for the first time in recorded history, things are melting fast.
> ...Bob used the figure of 2030...
Last I checked it wasn't 2030 yet.
NASA has a nice* video of the North polar ice cap. https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/155/video-annual-...
* It's okay, the graph doesn't have a zero-indexed base which it should.
Edit: Also Antarctica is the South ice cap, not the North, which is the video clip you linked.