“Your honor my actions only had a 1 in 25 chance of causing a wildfire” is not a great defense in a state where in recent memory wildfires have destroyed tens of thousands of homes and killed hundreds of people. We’ll see how that one plays out.
It won't go there for the judge, it's too hypothetical. Likely gross negligence at worst without specifying details of a fire. The fire is just a hypothetical for discussion here.