I got one of my personal domains back for $100 after years of various different squatters asking between $2k and $10k for it. "Literally no one else will ever buy this particular domain from you, take the win" finally worked.
If I'd urgently needed it back, I'd have had to spend more, yes.
If they really matter, extend registration for 10 years and keep adding one annually.
The bigger issue is that if your registrar sends a lot of spammy emails (ahem godaddy) you might miss the message reminding you to replace your expired cards.