Hacker News Reader

Comment by shagie | Hacker News Reader

Norway is 148 mi^2 and Montana is 147 mi^2 (and for a comparison on the other extreme Japan is 145 mi^2)

Norway has an overall population density of 38/mi^2 (15/km^2) and a map with that distribution - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Norway_population_de...

Montana has a population density of 6.86/mi^2 (2.65/km^2) - and an interactive map of it: https://statisticalatlas.com/state/Montana/Population

Japan has a population density of 900/mi^2 or 326/km^2

There are large portions of the US that are larger than European countries and have very low population densities in comparison.

View on HN

Now check the population distribution of US states and even the lowest density US states have most of their population in areas with far higher population density than places in Norway served by trains.

Yes, it's not a solution for everywhere. It's not a solution for everywhere in Norway either. But the point was not that. The point was that contrary to the comment I replied to, it is perfectly viable to serve areas that are quite low density. When you consider the low density areas in Norway that are served by trains, the proportion of the US population that lives in lower density regions is tiny.

It is viable if those areas are close enough to a place with enough population to service them.

A lot of the United States is that low density area with a drive of an hour or two to the next municipality with a population of 5000 or more.

It isn't going to be practical to run a rail out to most of those places with anything resembling a regular schedule.

The difference is that in Norway the distance between an area with sparse population and a city with a few thousand people is much smaller. It can make sense to run trains to all the cities in Norway that have a population of more than 5000 people - that gets you 100 cities (looking at it, a lot of them are impractical in terms of "you will need to take a ferry or fly"), but we've still got 100 cities there.

The 100th largest municipality in Norway with a population of 5000 would be the 20th largest city in Montana. The 100th largest municipality in Montana has a population of 237.

The population portion may be accurate... and that can be solved by fixing New York, Chicago, Dallas, and Los Angeles.

Once you go beyond those metro areas trying to provide regular public transportation of any sort becomes impractical. If one sticks to the eastern seaboard, ok - it might be doable. Trying to do regular and reliable public transportation to the small towns comparable to the sizes served in Norway becomes difficult west of the Appalachian mountains.

You're still arguing against a strawman. At no point have I argued for trying to meet the demand for everything with rail.

The point was exclusively that you don't need high density to be able to serve an area with rail. You need a route that sufficient number of people will take, sure. But you'll often find stations nearly in the middle of nowhere, because adding a minimal stop on a regional route even when the density is really low is a means of making even marginal routes between small towns viable.

And that is the only argument I've made: That stations in low density areas can also be viable (incidentally proven by the fact that Montana has train stations, ironically along a route that is ridiculously low density mainly serving places outside the state). Not that every little rural place has a viable route.

> The 100th largest municipality in Norway with a population of 5000 would be the 20th largest city in Montana. The 100th largest municipality in Montana has a population of 237.

So don't even consider covering anywhere but the 2-5 most viable bits of Montana (e.g. Billings to Missoula via Bozeman and Helena or Butte, following the existing roads; EDIT: Incidentally there are already rail lines used for freight on this route and connecting to Spokane, WA, and to both Wyoming and North Dakota), or just ignore all of Montana.

(EDIT2: Project to bring Amtrak back to Southern Montana [1])

You can ignore all of Montana entirely and still vastly improve US public transport, because covering every rural place is not something I've ever (here or in any thread anywhere) argued for.

Again, the only thing I've argued for is that stations in low density areas can be viable. None of you're arguments have addressed that.

> Trying to do regular and reliable public transportation to the small towns comparable to the sizes served in Norway becomes difficult west of the Appalachian mountains.

So don't do that. Not argued for it at any point.

[1] https://www.route-fifty.com/infrastructure/2022/11/rural-cor... "He said restoring an old Amtrak route would also link the state’s major urban centers – Billings, Bozeman, Helena and Missoula – while giving more options to rural communities." ... "BNSF, the freight railroad that owns the tracks over which the new service would pass, is on the rail authority’s board. "

Montana has 500k people or so.

Start solving this for the places with 10+ million people and change rural areas last, if needed (most likely you won't need to change anything).

There are 10 states with a population greater than 10M people.

And by that measure, we're mostly there. Chicago, New York, Philadelphia - we're good.

The next step would be to get reliable public transportation to the small towns in the Sierras of California.

My choice of Montana was for the size and the population density.

The issue sit hat the distance from {small town} in Montana to nearby city is much greater than in Norway.

If we're only going to do the eastern seaboard, ok. If rural areas are going to be ignored... ok... but there is a lot of rural area in the United States.

The idea of a train station (paved area next to the track) next to every small town in Montana with regular service to the nearby city (like Japan and Norway have) is impractical in Montana.

It is sometimes challenging to understand the sparseness of the Great Plains of the United States without having traveled through there.

Public transport outside of the large cities... the 10th largest city in Montana is Anaconda with a population of 9,000. There are 60 cities in Norway with more population than that. The 100th largest city in Norway has a population of 5000... if it was in Montana, it would be the 20th largest city.

Yes, let's start solving this in the largest cities and that will get most of the population... better public transportation and better electrical infrastructure. However, the approach of "just need more train stations" (yes, a simplified straw man) isn't going to work in most of the US when looking at it by area.

As I found while replying to another comment, most of the largest towns even in Montana are already connected by rail, they just haven't had Amtrak service since the 70s after cuts. Just reinstating that would be a significant improvement, and most of the counties covered by the rail network in Southern Montana have banded together to try to bring passenger rail back again on that route.

Low population areas generate less traffic and less pollution. Let them be, for now.

Focus on the 80%.

Also, in-settlement transport is the US problem. It's probably fine if a lot of inter-settlement transport remains by car, except for connections between cities of say, more than 200k that are closer than 300km from each other.

Area != state

For example you see a great number of people living along major rivers even through low density states.

Your areas are off by a factor of 1,000.

I must have missed the first `k` on and then unconsciously maintained it for consistency. Thank you for the correction.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com