I’m fully aware that my math is more crude than the real thing, it’s just there to illustrate the concept.
I didn’t factor in the risk factor of the driver profiles because it’s nearly irrelevant to the discussion, since the discussion is surrounding the plain existence of an expensive car on the road versus not being on the road, all else being equal.
It doesn’t really matter whether the owner or the expensive car is a perfect driver because the scenario under discussion is whether I need car insurance that covers high value damage to other people’s vehicles. If that super responsible wealthy person owned a less expensive car, the total amount of dollars paid out by insurance companies still decreases.
In other words, if my insurance company knew for a fact that nobody on the road drove a car worth more than $10k, my rate would be lower, if only slightly.
In your scenario where low value vehicle drivers are less responsible, it actually bolsters my point because those owners need to insure against being at-fault in crashes with the “more responsible and sophisticated wealthy vehicle owner.”