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Comment by huhtenberg | Hacker News Reader

Stocks dividends are now in 5-10% range, e.g. Verizon is at 7%.

Obviously, markets are volatile and are in "search of direction", but quite a few dividend-paying stocks are trading at near 5-10 year low, so picking them up is not that much of a gamble if your investment horizon is long.

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3 Month US T-bills are above 5% and much closer to money in the bank than picking random stocks.

For people who conduct their transactions in $'s, sure. But Europeans buying US Treasuries would be subject to currency risk, which could easily wipe out that 5% APR

Europeans have their pick of yields for Euro-Area 3 month sovereign bonds https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/european-government-bo...

How as a German could I buy or sell islandic or Hungarian bonds then? Do you need a bank account in those countries?

If I take short term 3M bonds and they become due, then I pay taxes where?

Individual corporate and government bonds are traded on the German stock exchanges. A regular brokerage account is sufficient to purchase these (e.g. Flatex). Tax statements are typically handled by the broker.

- DE: https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/de-de/tools/produktsuche/anl...

- HU: https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/de-de/tools/produktsuche/anl... (investment in tranches of 1k, 2k, 10k, or 100k)

- IS: https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/de-de/tools/produktsuche/anl... (investment in tranches of 100k)

> But Europeans buying US Treasuries would be subject to currency risk,

So would Europeans buying Verizon which was the example that your parent replied to.

Yes definitely, I didn't mean to imply therefore US stocks are the better choice, only that US fixed income isn't some straightforward escape hatch for Europeans.

Agreed. But EU fixed income is becoming very attractive and 3% risk-free short-term government debt (that can be easily bought directly from the government with minimal fees at least in some countries) is much better than a bank account paying 0% (or maybe more but probably in a less solid bank).

Yes, that's what I would suggest and do myself if I was European, not buy US treasuries.

Only if the Euro appreciates, which is unlikely in case of a recession.

"Only if"..well yea. And why wouldn't it? I don't know what you're basing your thesis on, it is very common to have currency moves in either direction that massively exceed the differential in US vs Euro rates. Making bets on how it plays out is also a big market, but in that case you're a currency trader...is that the type of risk profile of a non-trader looking for short term fixed income/savings? I doubt it.

One should probably default to making returns in the currency they buy things and pay taxes in unless there's an obvious reason not to. Trying to make an extra ~2% on short term rates seems like picking up nickels in front of a steam roller. Euro is up like 16% from the bottom last summer, and when it trends it can go for a while. Sounds risky.

Or if the USD depreciates, which is much more likely in case of a recession

Don't many EU countries have a similar vehicle to I-bonds too? That might yield more.

Euro bonds are barely 3%.

Not euro bonds, but bonds specific to a country.

There are no Euro bonds in the sense of debt issued by the EU, to my knowledge (although it's been discussed). All EU government debt is still issued by national governments of the EU constituent states.

Stocks, even blue chip ones, have a very different risk profile from money in the bank.

Probably not going to keep up with inflation vs definitely not going to keep up with inflation?

I would say stocks (index funds) probably will keep up with inflation (due to implicit government bailout guarantees) and “money in the bank” (or even government debt) will not keep up with inflation due to explicit government promise to continuously reduce purchasing power of the currency.

Useless to most Europeans though. I have to pay 15%-30% of the value of any US stock I buy in tax when i sell (to the US government), no matter the initial investment. I own about 10K euros of TSLA stock, and when I sell (as a EU citizen) the US government will take %30.

Stock dividend of 5-10% is pretty much unheard of here.

You need some actual tax advice. I deduct EU tax from my tax liabilities in US so my US tax exposure is exactly 0. Still have to file US taxes, so my accountant fee exposure is non-zero but it isn't too hard to do yourself once you have a few examples to copy from.

If you are a non-resident & non-US citizen, I think long term capital gains taxes will apply. If you hold TSLA for at least one year, your tax rate will be reduced to 15%. This tax can be offset by capital gains taxes paid in your own country.

Utter nonsense.

US withholding taxes only apply on dividends and other fixed income.

Can't you fill W-8BEN form to reduce taxes on the US side?

I’m pretty sure my UK broker refused to allow me trade US stocks until I filled out the W8-BEN.

This is only relevant in EU countries without a capital gains tax, though (or with one lower than 15%), right?

Careful, dividends yields are going up because the price is going down.

Or are prices going down because in a high-interest scenario dividend yields have to go up? ;)

Causality in econ is hard.

yeah, I always DCA into a bunch of ETF's but this was the first month i ever 'picked my stocks'. Most mining companys are in distressed range because alot of metals and materials are at all time lows. They also have great P/E ratios because of the slump.

For instance, Albemarle has a revenue jump of 119% YOY% with a 33% Profit margin. but it's trading four time book value. That's insane to me. It has tech company growth, but since the price of lith is at all time lows investors are scared. Even with lith at this price, they are making a huge margin and are scaling up production. But if you beleive Lith will be in short supply in the future, it's a great opportunity.

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