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Comment by neom | Hacker News Reader

Does anyone have a sense of how bad things really are for the US economy and what the next 12/18 months are going to look like? Seems like every day all I see is doom and gloom, I've not seen a bright spot in quite some time... it's becoming increasingly difficult for me to get a sense of where things are. People keep saying things are going to get worse, I keep reading things are going to get worse, friends are literally committing suicide. Feels like twilight zone.

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I'm in the BI space. I'll answer anecdotally since I pay attention to the job boards in the US quite a bit. I've got no hard data for my assertion full disclosure. For the last 3 months entry level work has dried up. I'm seeing very few postings for underling positions. Mid level 4-7 years jobs have markedly declined as I'm seeing fewer postings across this same time span month over month. 7+ years experience seems to be flat, but not down as the other tranches of work. You asked for a sense. That's my sense.

As someone with just about 3yoe actively searching for the last 3 months, I agree with this

What job boards do you check? What’s a BI position like

DO you publish any of this info anyplace?

We posted a job back in oct/nov for a senior tech position at a very large, but non-tech company - we got 3 applicants/resumes, 2 of which were out of the country and not considered. The one got hired (and was a good hire).

In Jan/Feb posted the exact same job (an additional position) and got over 300 resumes including from ex-FAANG folks who we generally don't see applying).

Something sure has changed imo, and I also personally do believe things are about to get much, much worse for many people.

Separate your personal happiness from your job. Who knows what the future holds, maybe it won't be working in tech. Be ready for anything IMHO. It might get better, or it might not any time soon. But the sun will come up again tomorrow, and the day after and after etc.

I can understand trying to have a calming discourse whose message pretty much amounts to "c'est la vie".

But even if that is not your intention, it can come out as dismissive. Many people do worry about the future for very good reasons.

How does it help your situation to worry about something you cannot control or influence in any way whatsoever?

Plan for the future, good or bad, but don't dwell on what you can't control.

> How does it help your situation to worry about something you cannot control or influence in any way whatsoever?

They affect me. I don’t give a fuck what the sun does everyday if I can’t pay my rent.

Worrying won't pay your rent either, is the point.

No, but it’ll certainly make me more likely to do things that might pay my rent. Certainly compared to a “la de da nothing is wrong xd it is what it is” attitude.

You're basically agreeing with the people you were arguing with. It's the "do things" part that worthwhile, not the "worry about it" part.

> “la de da nothing is wrong xd it is what it is” attitude

You misunderstood, no one above was taking that attitude.

I think many people, especially the privileged in tech, haven't had to worry about money before. The possibility of losing it all and ending up homeless doesn't even cross their mind, either from ignorance or from significant personal/family wealth that provides a safety net.

Easy not to worry when you can't fathom that it may happen to you or your peer.

My job pays for the roof over my head and the food on my table. How am I supposed to be happy without that?

I also struggle to separate what I do from who I am. I've been trying to build a more purposeful sense of identity outside of work, because jobs will come and go. Plus I sound like a real tool if someone asks me what my deal is and all I can say is "software engineer".

doom and gloom? all major indexes are still trading at lofty values

"safety" stocks like AAPL are at or near all-time highs

real estate has budged slightly, but a rounding error off of the gains made in the last few years

even employment...tech hiring is getting hit but lots of other employers in retail, food & beverage are reporting record hiring and even wage increases

if there is a "crash", it hasn't happened yet

you may just end up with a sucky decade of stagflation...you are poorer every day, but just not dramatically so

The explanation that is circulating is that everyone is making decisions based on where inflation is headed. If inflation is not tamed, business leaders will seek to extract more cost cuts (more layoffs).

The other headline is that LLM and ChatGPT is reshaping the tech landscape. Tech companies are laying off engineers so they can hire AI/LLM engineers to compete with ChatGPT. Based on my limited knowledge, OpenAI is head and shoulders above everyone else. Google's Bard is a distant second.

By far the best historical analogy is the decaying USSR. We have an elite class that has been totally spoiled by the last 40 years of triumphalism, and lacks vision.

QoL for most Americans will continue to drop to match USA's precipitous decline in geopolitical status, but even Russia rebounded after just a couple decades. Hey, we got a bunch of O&G as well.

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