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Comment by brk | Hacker News Reader

I doubt this is going to play out as optimistically as the pro-EV crowd thinks.

No personal bias against EVs, but there are still issues with range for towing/hauling, and longer duration "road trip" style commutes that make it impossible to be "pure EV" on the roads any time soon.

Also, the marine and aviation industries don't have viable EV options in the short term (10 years), same with heavy equipment (CAT, Deere, etc.), this will keep at least enough of a market for gas/diesel engine production that they won't go away.

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There's wisdom in what you say. At the same time, technology adoption curves only get to 100% at the asymptote. For example, one still encounters a need to send a fax from time to time, and some people still have landlines.

That said, the auto market at 50% or 70% EV adoption will still be a big deal! And we might find out that some of the issues that folks see with EVs are solvable and/or aren't that important anyway. For example: the average American summer road trip is under 300 miles, so the range anxiety might be ameliorated by wider availability of faster chargers than are available today. Similarly, we might learn that users of heavy equipment are in the habit of taking breaks during which they could charge their equipment, etc.

My bigger concern is just how damn reliable new vehicles are. The average age of a car on the road today is like 12 years. Even if we start selling 100% electric cars tomorrow, the curve is a lot fatter and the cut over slower. On the other hand, this is a great thing because it will smooth out the transition

Gas stations going under may really accelerate the tail end of the process. Their business model is going to break down, and then range anxiety for gas/diesel will make them less viable.

Maybe. Range anxiety is less of an issue. A 2021 Toyota Camry has a 15.8 gallon tank. Functionally 500 miles of range. Even to reserve a few gallons we're at 400 miles per tank.

Probably what would happen if this was a real concern is they'd just make the gas tanks bigger. It's not that hard to do so.

Do they even make money off of gas?

Not really, but that doesn't mean they would continue to exist without it.

I've seen estimates that cars in the US are scrapped at approximately the same rate new cars are being sold. Somewhere around 12M - 15M per year. That's less than 10% of the estimated fleet, but still consequential.

I'm not sure how to reconcile these figures with the apparently growing average age of the fleet. I suppose it means there are a lot of early deaths for relatively new cars due to accidents and other calamity.

You are right, the hauling and aviation industries will probably stick to burning fuel for a while. Maybe eFuel someday but still burning fuel.

But this don't mean that average Joe transportation (which incidentally makes up 99%ofprivate vehicle travel) cannot be realistically electrified.

Sure, even there people will keep running their classic cars and probably even some sports and muscle cars but for the biggest majority of casual commuters the writing is on the wall. There just is no real upside to sticking with ICEs even today.

While I think this is largely pretty true, I think in the longer run that if you get to a place where the average consumer is no longer exposed to the price of gas, you can get into a political reality where you could start pricing in the remediation cost of the fuel.

An analogy might be ethanol-free gas. Many motors out there still require it, and you have to go out of your way to find it, and you will pay a premium for it. But it is at least there if you need it.

Buc-ees somehow manages to have gas stations with over 100 pumps[1]. I am usually skeptical of claims that the free market will sort it out, but it is easy to underestimate how powerful financial incentives can be. I don't think it will take long for EV "gas" stations to exist.

1: https://www.archpaper.com/2018/08/gas-stations-steroids-tota...

There are already niches where EV aircraft will be likely wins - right now for frequent takeoff/landing, short hop travel it looks like some form of EV aircraft will take up that space.

Very heavy construction and marine equipment is already electric propulsion. The question is what will be the source for that electric. Even if diesel fuel is much more energy dense, IC engines thermodynamically lose a majority of that energy. So the gap to make up is smaller than a superficial look.

Actually, EV drivetrains are more suitable for heavy equipment than are ICE drivetrains. They are far less sensitive to weight, and operating costs are far more of a factor than initial purchase costs. Not to mention the incredible torque and power of electric motors.

Additionally, solar charging is far easier to get out to a remote jobsite than is diesel. If you've never seen diesel logistics for e.g. remote mines, you'd have no idea. And even for the far north (or far south) where solar is not an option, often they'll have provisions for electricity or alternative methods of generating it on site.

Additionally, solar charging is far easier to get out to a remote jobsite than is diesel.

Not at the size/scale you need to recharge and power a fleet of earthmovers and dump trucks. The energy density of diesel fuel is pretty high.

> Also, the marine and aviation industries don't have viable EV options in the short term (10 years)

With high enough energy density, I suppose it's possible for short haul aviation to go electric. If they can overcome the energy density difficulties, I'm sure it'll be great for reliability and cost. And maybe even noise.

I have serious doubts that it'll ever be feasible for long haul aviation to run on anything but hydrocarbons. Although I suppose it's theoretically possible.

I believe that CATL battery is supposed to hit 1kwh/kg in the next 5 years. That's enough to quadruple range of current EVs if maintaining the same weight. I would be interested in this, or at double the range with half the weight (so about 800mi in an EV truck).

I don't think production will ever go away. But I do think that if you hit densities 500wh-1kwh and at a cheaper price, it will be relegated to niches. Maybe that will take 20 years.

Do you think the shift to EV will affect long style of commute lifestyles? Or, will the combination of long commutes / EVs / remote work combine to fix this?

For marine, it seems that cargo ships could have large solar arrays for energy regeneration, perhaps strapped to their top layer of containers? I think aviation will lean towards hydrogen cells given the need to rapidly refuel and energy density.

For marine, it seems that cargo ships could have large solar arrays for energy regeneration

I do not think there is any practical scenario where a vehicle can be self-solar powered for long distance journeys. The energy demand scales up with the size of the vehicle. This is why you don't see EV's with solar panels for primary power (I am aware of some like Fisker that have essentially novelty solar panels). A cargo ship loaded with solar panels would be highly impractical on a number of levels, and would not be able to gather enough energy to make it worthwhile without a massive increase in panel efficiency.

I'm not an expert; but I don't see solar as being an option for cargo ships.

Using wind power on the other hand seems like a better fit in this case.

My guess is EVs won't affect commutes because they're better to drive and more convenient to fuel than gas cars for commuters.

Yes and it will take decades to replace the millions of fuel burning fuel machines that exist. I have a 5 year old gasoline car that I don't drive much. From an EROI (Energy Return on Investment) perspective I wouldn't be helping by replacing it with an EV any time soon.

I would say it would be a clear win to replace your car with an EV even if you don't drive it much. You help bring down the price of EVs, demonstrate their utility, and your old car will likely be resold and push an even less fuel-efficient old car off the road.

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