Climate Town has a great video essay on it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MondapIjAAM
Do you truly think this gets fixed in any significant way?
https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1988/1988_Hansen_ha02700w.pd...
Feel free to superimpose today's data[1] on Figure 3 from the above report. Link to the CSV file is here [2] to save you some time with the analysis. Some discussion here [3] (2007). Seems to me that if you compare against the most recent data, scenario B ("the most plausible" of 3 scenarios) is pretty close to dead-on.
[1] https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/graph_data/Glob...
[2] https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/
[3] https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/hanse...
Here's how various models made during the 80s fared though: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-m...
Not unreasonably badly really. On the other hand I haven't really seen evidence from what I've heard from various far-right figures of a sudden shift to global cooling, cessation of global warming, or any sort of dramatically lower rate of global warming than expected. Usually I see people cite what Al Gore said in an inconvenient truth being wrong, but the thing is there's actually quite a few models which weren't wrong so why wouldn't you believe those?
If anything I've heard arguments shift from "global warming isn't happening" towards "peoples models of how climate change will impact the economy are wrong" and "it's easier to adapt to climate change than move away from fossil fuels" and "Doing things about climate change is pointless when $COUNTRY and $CORPORATION won't do anything" and recently "carbon pricing kills poor people through poverty today for a speculative benefit in the future". Maybe with a sprinkling of "The climate has always changed" (yes) and "Climate change - manmade?" (yes).
I kid, but I guess that is what’s at the root of it. A fear of change and wanting to believe it isn’t so, because then there’s no need for change.
The whole attitude is foreign to me, because I believe in following the evidence wherever it takes me, no matter how frightening I find it. It would be easier if I could believe the comforting lie sometimes.
There are yearly conferences where hundreds of private jets emit more Co2 into the world than the average person will in their lifetime. And the people attending these conferences step off their jet, drive in a motorcade of SUVs to the venue, and sign documents committing to disburse billions of taxpayer dollars to LLCs and corporations their friends will form before next year's conference when they'll do it all over again. They'll lament about the epidemic of science denialism afflicting the common folk, and then they'll get back on their jets and fly back to one of their multiple homes to continue hoarding and growing their obscene wealth.
When you dismiss criticism of the status quo as "science denialism" or whatever perjorative is en vogue amongst your fellow saviors of "our democracy," you are serving the agenda of the biggest polluters on the planet, by looking the other way while they facilitate global corruption and forego any legitimate mitigation of the impending catastrophe you care so virtuously about preventing to stave off the existential threat so many of your fellow non-billionaires are too ignorant and science-denying to recognize.
I would also stress what climate change is going to mean and connect it to contemporary politics. Economic migration is for the most part a very controversial thing especially among the type of people also against reforms regarding limiting ghg emissions etc. Realistically some of this is ALREADY caused by climate change, but we're going to see a LOT more of it caused by climate change, so if people don't want it to happen in the first place and also want to plausibly convince the general electorate they have no ethical obligation to take in migrants, than doing something about climate change early is expedient. This is not just international migration it will also be national migration and yuppies fleeing coastal cities which will get much more expensive generally leading to scarcity and inflation. Climate change it likely is going to have a rather adverse effect on purchasing power, notably for food, and we're only seeing the beginnings of high food prices if not outright famine due to both production and distribution constraints. Due to these legions of practical issues, not only should people support such reforms, the political will for different countries to impose measures against powerful corporations will pick up steam.
Most everyone will still be driving gas/petrol cars
No evidence will appear that will convince me [the denialist] that climate change is real
Peak oil won’t happen until 2020 at the earliest
As a meteorologist, I know that persistence is very often a correct forecast. Inability to predict change is when people die, though.
The great salt lake is not even close to full.
We have less arctic ice.
Sea levels are higher.
But as you said, this isn’t an argument either of us will win, so agree to disagree?
Gonna need a citation there.
You understand that it’s part of the Colorado river, which is (pre-global warming) one of the highest flow rivers in the world (it literally carved the Grand Canton).
The path of The Colorado pre-Hoover Dam still went through Black Canyon. Stop all human intervention, the River still goes there.
Where else is the Rocky snowpack going?
You can’t make any inroads on convincing people if you don’t understand their arguments, so I try to do so. Having studied climatology in university I have heard dumb arguments galore, and not from anyone in my field.
And it mostly worked.
The first time I was ever mad about politics was in grade school, when some fake magazine for kids (probably one of the ads from Scholastic) had an interview with Ronald Reagan, and what the interviewer thought kids needed to know about Reagan was how crazy he was for jelly beans.
If I had known the phrase, "What in the actual fuck?" I would have said it out loud.
It would be 6 more years before someone summed up how terrifying the 1980's were and that man's name was Phil Collins (Genesis, Land of Confusion). But those bases were already loaded with... well, take your pick. You can go with Michael Keaton Movies about the crumbling economy or West German rock bands with a sprinkling of Sting ('Russians') while we all collectively crossed our fingers that we wouldn't wake up on The Day After.
https://harpers.org/archive/1958/09/the-coming-ice-age/
I have a distinct memory of my “science” textbook in 2nd grade circa 1981 had a section on the upcoming ice age. Once I realized that the book was old enough to not include the moon landing I didn’t pay much attention to it.
In any case, the idea about an impending ice age was in the science zeitgeist, at least the layman understanding of it well before the 80s.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Framework_Con...
The only underlying science was some debate about whether air pollution, the kind you can see and scrape off your skin, was going to be so bad that it would offset the greenhouse effect. But Nixon effectively ended that debate with the Clean Air Act.
The science it was based on, of course, was the fact that ice ages are cyclical and we are well towards what would typically be the end of an interglacial period:
"the last four interglacials lasted over ~20,000 years with the warmest portion being a relatively stable period of 10,000 to 15,000 years duration. This is consistent with what is seen in the Vostok ice core from Antarctica and several records of sea level high stands. These data suggest that an equally long duration should be inferred for the current interglacial period as well. Work in progress on Devils Hole data for the period 60,000 to 5,000 years ago indicates that current interglacial temperature conditions may have already persisted for 17,000 years."
-- https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-long-can-we-expect-present-int...
You also had the fact that some of the coldest (and snowiest) winters on record in the US were during the 1970's, most notably during 1977 when it snowed in Miami and the Bahamas for the only time in recorded history, and temperatures in much of the midwest stayed below freezing for over a month. So of course articles about a new ice age would attract readers, even though any return to ice age conditions would happen over centuries, if it wasn't disrupted by humans.
It really was a lot of snow though, we were out of school for like two weeks in the spring of 1978.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/1756074
I mentioned it in an earlier comment but it was also in my science textbook in my elementary school days.
In the Fort Worth Star Telegram, 27 Sep 1981, is the article "World's mercury inching upward", discussing the science which wouldn't look out of place today. But it wasn't until the end of the 80s that the US government started to take it seriously.