So, yes, there is a theory that someone may go in the trash in Sweden, finds the envelope, the stamp (and it has to be a british one), investigate who bought the stamp, get the assistance of the shopkeeper in UK (without raising suspicions), successfully reviews tons of security cameras footage to find who bought, etc.
And still don't know which activity to link it to.
A perfect waste of public resources if the NSA really does that, when all they needed to do is to purchase a VPN provider or fund Tor and claim to be no-logs VPN ;)