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Comment by ExMachina73 | Hacker News Reader

Any bets she actually reports? Odds anyone? I feel a woman of her means and personality may try to disappear, go off grid. Does she still have access to money? Were her assets frozen?

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That would be a bad idea.

Skipping town on a sentence puts one in a rarified category where enforcement is now a federal problem, and the FBI has long memories, an international reach, and no statute of limitations on how long they can hunt a person who is sentenced. At which point, if they fall back under US custody, they get to start their sentence (as well as go on trial for the additional penalties associated with fleeing custody).

I'm aware of one case where for a suspect in a murder, the FBI put together a yacht party in a foreign country, got the target on the ship, sailed it out to international waters, and took them into custody at that point. I'm loathe to see what ends they'd go to to apprehend someone with a sentence hanging over them.

> Skipping town on a sentence puts one in a rarified category where enforcement is now a federal problem

Enforcement of federal crimes like those Holmes was charged with is federal to start with. Skipping sentence makes it a US Marshals’ problem, though.

> I’m aware of one case where for a suspect in a murder, the FBI put together a yacht party in a foreign country, got the target on the ship, sailed it out to international waters, and took them into custody at that point.

Federal law enforcement has straight up hired people to kidnap a suspect from a country with which we have an extradition treaty; your example is hardly extreme. (And I’m talking about before the War on Terror.)

Though the best example of that is the DEA, not the FBI:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Alvarez-Macha...

>That would be a bad idea.

And one she's certainly (allegedly?) entertained in the past ~year[0].

>As evidence of what they described as her “attempt to flee the country shortly after she was convicted,” prosecutors highlighted the plane ticket Holmes had booked for Jan. 26, 2022, without any scheduled return date.

>They complained to her defense team that she hadn’t notified them or the court about the trip, which violated her bail conditions...

[0]https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/davidmack/elizabeth-hol...

I dunno. This woman was so afraid of being imprisoned that she got herself pregnant twice. And others have mentioned the airplane tickets that were found before sentencing. I believe she'll try anything to get out of it.

That case sounds interesting, but I couldn't find anything on a cursory google. Can you provide some more details? Thanks

Might be the Fawaz Younis thing: https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/fawaz-younis

It was passed to me orally by an FBI trainer at Quantico during a visit once; I have no primary source other than that.

She tried before sentencing and was caught.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/20/tech/elizabeth-holmes-mexico/...

People say stuff like this because it's fun to talk about, not because it's a live issue. Do you actually want to bet? There aren't a lot of serious odds you could suggest for this where I wouldn't bet she shows up, like everybody else does.

The last I heard, the founders of Ubiome had fled the country and are wanted by the FBI after their company was raided. Not everyone "shows up" if they have the means to flee.

You're right! Interesting. My original comment about odds wasn't a serious request to make a bet, just hyperbole. It does seem given her high profile if she did flee, she'd be right on the FBI top-10 most wanted list.

She'd instantly get caught, and it would have a profound effect on the next 15 years of her life (for instance: it would immediately put her in a higher security class of detention).

Why do you say she'd instantly get caught?

unlikely that she has the know how, network, grit, etc. to get to the middle of nowhere and stay there forever without drawing attention.

Do you actually want to bet? I'd be happy to take your money.

No, because there's probably a lot of eyeballs on her at this moment. She's probably the very definition of a flight risk I would imagine, given her personality, the scope of her crimes, and her previous attempt to flee.

However, you make it sound like it's super difficult to disappear. It can be as simple as getting on a boat and sailing off into the night, or an airplane... no Hollywood plot necessary - no one would have any clue who was onboard, and depending on the destination, they may not care either.

>No, because there's probably a lot of eyeballs on her at this moment.

Going on the lam for the rest of your life, with (or without?) your two young children, can't be a whole lot better than serving your white-collar time, can it? I mean, it's not like she's independently wealthy and can vanish to some tropical island.

Disappearing is easy.

Staying disappeared is much more difficult, particularly if you are interested in living even a moderately normal life.

I mean for her yeah. The average guy wanted on a felony for stealing cars or something, could probably be fine working as an agricultural worker on a farm in Brazil or something for the rest of their life. I've met plenty of white euro looking people in South America living off the black market and frankly no one would bother to find out who they were unless their were some big reward, and usually there isn't.

You definitely don’t want to be a fugitive. If she tries to escape and gets caught (chances are any escapee will), they’ll stick her in a tough high-security prison, not the minimum security camp she’s meant to report to.

A woman of her means is not accustomed to life on the run.

There are many places that do not extradite, even if you are known to be living there.

Life on the run is a Hollywood thing - the CIA isn't going to kick down her door and blackbag her back to the US. If she leaves the US, she is effectively gone unless she does something really stupid.

The CIA does not deal with fugitives....but the FBI does. They have a task force devoted to tracking down fugitives.

The FBI generally works through Interpol to bring back international fugitives (for example, Tamara Dadyan) but will also "blackbag" fugitives if necessary. It's just not necessary to do that very often.

The list of countries that do not extradite or cooperate with international law enforcement is surprisingly large... it's not just tropical islands.

There's also plenty of countries that would enjoy harboring a wanted US person.

The list of countries that don't extradite to the U.S. and the list of countries a wealthy person would want to live in don't have much overlap, unless you think Syria and Somalia are wonderful places to live. (There are a number of countries, like Indonesia and Vatican City that don't have extradition treaties with the U.S. but which will extradite to the U.S. through Interpol.)

The most famous recent example if probably Ghosn fleeing Japan to Lebanon. It does make one wonder how likely it will be for the next case. That being said, the coincidence of great wealth and being from a country that treats you as a hero and doesn't have extradition treaties with the west does seem quite low, but obviously not zero.

I don't know, living off of the grid sounds like it can get pretty uncomfortable. She doesn't really seem like the roughing it type. She probably has a better chance of using her money and connections to try and overturn the conviction on appeal, or maybe beg a future president for a pardon.

Spending a couple years in minimum security prison before being let out for "good behavior" with your slate clean is a much better prospect than spending your entire life on the run from the law.

According to the wikipedia article, even with good behavior she will serve a minimum 9.5 years with no possibility of parole. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Elizabeth_A._...

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