That’s an argument, but I don’t buy it. Models are a commodity. You don’t get VC valuations and returns from raising $5B for a grain startup.

The application of AI to business problems will be lucrative, but the models are just a tool and the money will come from the domain-specific data (i.e. user and business data), which Microsoft, Google, and even Meta are positioned for. Having a slightly better model but no customer data or domain expertise doesn’t seem like a great recipe.

Then again it’s AI, so there’s more uncertainty than the commodity market. Maybe Anthropic will surprise and I’ll be as wrong about this as I was about OS/2 being the future. But I’m very skeptical.