I think you are right in that it needs to be really tightly coupled to a gameplay mechanic, so much that it won't need to be a real simulation. The gameplay availabile through more realistic physics simulation has been relegated to novel indie games that can afford the gameplay challenges.
I think the main issue is structure and containment. AAA games don't avoid destruction, newtonian physics and fluid dynamics because it's computationally hard but because it probably doesn't benefit the more standard gameplay mechanics enough for all the issues it causes.
Just as an example, Red Faction came out in 2001 with full terrain destruction, but they had to preempt all the shortcuts people would take else you can just tunnel to the end of the level. Every time a GTA comes out the internet rumours say it'll have fully destructable buildings, but that will never happen as you would end up blowing up all the mission locations or breaking NPC pathfinding etc.