I started using gmail actively in 2008, in 2012 I think almost everyone who had an email, had a gmail account, maybe not as primary. By 2014 it was the norm for non tech users. It's not b2b and cost if switching for individual users is cheap. OpenAI showed they can do marketing, UI and scale. Search is Google’s golden goose, loosing 20-40% of market share in 5y span might be devastating.

But the main “attack” vector isn’t gonna be chatgpt replacing Google search or another search engine cannibalizing market, but rather search becoming obsolete, as tools become smarter. GPT plugins combined with good api, specialized models and maybe even local inference. Most of my searches are “how to do X in such and such library / tool / framework / etc.” When my tool, whether its IDE or Jupyter notebook or Photoshop can use few prompts to essentially do what I mean, I don’t need to search the internet. And then Google PMs can dwell 24/7 on diminishing metrics of MAUs and DAUs, wondering why they are loosing to other search engine or chatgpt, when in fact they are losing to the next generation UI.