You'll want to have kernel sources handy. In this case you can see the packet ending up in nf_hook_slow function: https://elixir.bootlin.com/linux/latest/source/net/netfilter...

from there you can see only one branch leading to kfree_skb, so you can make a guess that some netfilter "hook" returned NF_DROP. From that you might already be able to make educated guesses that it might be iptables rule, or continue delving deeper to figure out what those hooks are etc