VC investments are literally based on speculation. Sure, that speculation is informed and certain investors can help those speculations come true (e.g. Rocket Internet is infamous for investing in a range of similar startups because it allows them to bet on competitors and control the market without running afoul of anti-trust laws) but it's still speculation about the possible future value rather than the state of things.

It should also be telling that just betting on the best performing stocks consistently is a more successful strategy than using intricate metrics and trendlines to try to predict future successes, just as counting cards is a better strategy than whatever astrology habitual gamblers come up with. Of course nothing tops the success rate of "insider trading" (i.e. cheating), which is why it's illegal.